摘要
目前,巴西政府实施放开疫情封锁措施,服务业恢复增长,失业率高位回落。但经济复苏乏力,通胀压力持续,政府和私人部门债务负担较重,滞胀风险较大。在美联储加息背景下,巴西央行为控制通胀和防止资本外流,持续提高利率。展望未来,巴西疫情防控形势依然严峻,产业结构失衡、滞胀风险上升、利率水平较高等因素都将阻碍巴西经济复苏。疫情反复与经济社会问题相互叠加,经济脆弱性较高,需密切关注大选后左翼政党执政对巴西经济金融形势带来的变化及其对我国的影响。
At present,the Brazilian government has lifted the epidemic blockade measures,the service industry has resumed growth,and the unemployment rate has dropped from a high level.However,the economic recovery was sluggish,inflationary pressures continued to rise,government and private sector debt burdens were heavy,and the risk of stagflation was rising.Against the backdrop of the Fed raising interest rates,the Central Bank of Brazil continued to raise interest rates in order to control inflation and prevent capital outflows.Looking forward to the future,the situation of epidemic prevention and control in Brazil is still severe.Factors such as industrial structure imbalance,rising stagflation risk,and high interest rate levels will hinder Brazil’s economic recovery.The repeated epidemics and economic and social problems are superimposed on each other which exacerbated Brazil’s economic vulnerability.We should pay attention to the impact of changes in Brazil’s economic and financial situation in the election year on my country.
作者
李珍
LI Zhen(The People’s Bank of China,Chongqing Operations Office)
出处
《当代金融研究》
2022年第12期74-82,共9页
Journal of Contemporary Financial Research
关键词
巴西
经济
金融
形势
分析
Brazil
Economy
Finance
Situation
Analysis
