摘要
新冠肺炎疫情在巴西持续蔓延,巴西经济重启举步维艰,通胀压力攀升,失业问题突出,消费、投资、企业信心指数低迷,工业生产下滑,汇率、股指等市场指标大幅波动,资本流出较为严重,政府和私人部门债务居高不下。展望未来,巴西疫情防控形势依然严峻,经济复苏难度较大,“去工业化”、资本流出、货币美元化和滞胀风险上升也加剧巴西经济结构性改革困难。随着巴西大选年的来临,疫情反复与经济社会问题相互叠加,容易形成恶性循环导致金融和债务危机,需密切关注其经济金融形势变化对我国的影响。
As the COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread across Brazil, the Brazilian economy is struggling to gain footing while inflation pressures are rising. At the same time, unemployment is a persistent problem, while the indices for consumption, investment and corporate confidence are sluggish.Industrial production is slumping, the exchange rate and main stock index have shown significant volatility,capital outflows have intensified, and government and private sector debt remains high. Looking ahead, the prospects for controlling the epidemic in Brazil are not encouraging. "De-industrialization," a dollarization of the currency and a rising risk of stagflation also are making structural reform in the economy much more complicated. As Brazil heads toward a general election later this year, the Covid situation is aggravating economic and social problems and complicating the political picture. This could create a vicious circle and lead to financial and debt crises. We should also pay close attention to the impact on China from Brazil’s economic and financial situation.
出处
《金融市场研究》
2022年第4期119-126,共8页
Financial Market Research
关键词
巴西
经济
金融
Brazil
Economy
Finance
