摘要
[目的]分析2000-2020年陕西省县域碳排放时空变化和影响因素,为陕西省生态文明建设和实现低碳可持续发展提供参考。[方法]利用社会经济数据和土地利用数据,构建碳排放估算模型,核算了2000-2020年陕西省县域碳排放总量,分析了陕西省碳排放时空分布格局与演化特征,并通过地理加权回归(GWR)模型探究了碳排放的影响因素。[结果]①总量上,2000-2020年陕西省碳排放量总量呈上升趋势,从2000年的3.30×10^(7)t增长至2020年的1.93×10^(8)t,历经“大幅增长-缓慢增长”两个阶段。②空间上,2000-2020年陕西省碳排放量中心逐步向东北方向移动,空间分布范围呈现扩张态势,热点区主要分布在榆林市北部县域、西安市和咸阳市辖区的周边部分县域,冷点区主要分布在佛坪县和石泉县。③影响因素上,人均GDP值、土地利用程度和人均社会零售总额与陕西省各县域碳排放量呈正相关,产业结构与陕西省60.74%县域碳排放量呈负相关,人口密度与陕西省92.52%县域碳排放量呈负相关。[结论]建议通过制定差异性区域碳减排方案,优化土地利用结构,控制建设用地增长规模,提高公众低碳环保意识等方式促进陕西省县域低碳发展。
[Objective]The spatio-temporal changes and influencing factors of carbon emission at the county scale in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed in order to provide a reference for ecological civilization construction and low-carbon sustainable development in Shaanxi Province.[Methods]Socioeconomic and land use data were used to construct a carbon emission estimation model.The total carbon emission in Shaanxi Province was calculated and the spatiotemporal patterns and changes from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed.Subsequently.The influencing factors of carbon emissions were determined using the geographically weighted regression method.[Results]①Total carbon emissions increased from 3.30×10^(7)tons in 2000 to 1.93×10^(8)tons in 2020.The evolution of carbon emission can be divided into two stages(substantial growth and slow growth).②The carbon emission center gradually moved to the northeast from 2000 to 2020,and the spatial distribution range showed an expansion trend.The hot spots were mainly located in the northern counties of Yulin City,and around Xi’an and Xianyang City.The cold spots were mainly located in Foping County and Shiquan County.③Per capita GDP,land use degree,and per capita total social retail sales were positively correlated with carbon emissions,while industrial structure and population density were negatively correlated in 60.74%and 92.52%of counties,respectively.[Conclusion]Low-carbon development should be promoted in Shaanxi Province by formulating differentiated regional carbon emission reduction plans,optimizing the land use structure,controlling the expansion of construction land,and by enhancing public awareness of low-carbon environmental protection.
作者
曹周亮
张欣蓉
员学锋
陈锦鸿
Cao Zhouliang;Zhang Xinrong;Yuan Xuefeng;Chen Jinhong(School of Land Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi’an,Shaanxi 710054,China;School of Earth Science and Resources,Chang’an University,Xi’an,Shaanxi 710054,China;Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Land Consolidation,Xi’an,Shaanxi 710054,China;Institute of Rural Revitalization,Chang’an University,Xi’an,Shaanxi 710054,China)
出处
《水土保持通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第5期376-385,共10页
Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
长安大学土地工程学院开放基金(211927190123)
陕西省土地整治重点实验室基金项目“基于土地整治工程的陕西省耕地质量提升潜力分区”(211927190123)。
关键词
碳排放
标准差椭圆
土地利用
地理加权回归
陕西省
carbon emission
standard deviational ellipse
land use
geographical weighted regression
Shaanxi Province
