摘要
居留意愿被认为是影响流动人口居留决策的重要因素,而大城市不断增加的住房负担,日益成为制约流动人口居留意愿和行为的关键因素。鉴于既有研究中关于住房负担对流动人口居留意愿影响及其群体差异性考虑的不足,论文以上海为例,基于2012年和2017年流动人口动态监测调查问卷数据,采用二元Logistic回归模型,分析流动人口居留意愿的影响因素及其变化,并探讨住房负担对流动人口居留意愿与决策行为的影响。研究发现:①房租收入比增加对于流动人口的居留意愿具有明显抑制作用,特别是低教育程度和低技术职业群体更加敏感;②房价/房租的快速增长加重流动人口的住房负担,增加其实际居留难度,流动人口“想留不能留”将可能迫使其产生居留意愿的改变;③城市住房负担持续增加率先对较低劳动技能群体产生“驱离”效应,而压力进一步加剧则将导致更多流动人口迁出或被迫降低生活质量。建议城市政府为流动人口尽量提供更具包容性、可支付和多元化的住房。
Settlement intention affects the settlement decision of the floating population in cities,and the increasing housing burden has gradually become a key factor restricting the settlement decision of floating population.In view of the relative deficiency of existing research on how housing burden affects the settlement intention of floating population and differences between groups,this study took Shanghai Municipality as an example and used the data in 2012 and 2017 collected from the migrant population dynamic monitoring survey(CMDS)in Shanghai and a binary Logistic regression model to analyze the influencing factors and changes of the floating population's settlement intention,and examined the influence of housing burden on settlement intention and decision of the floating population.The results show that:1)The increase of housing price to income ratio has a significant negative effect on the floating population's settlement intention,and the groups with lower education level and lower employment status suffer a more significant effect.2)The rapid growth of housing price increases the housing burden of the floating population,increases their settlement difficulty,and forces them to change their settlement intention and decision.3)Housing burden will lead to the"driving out"effect on the floating population with lower skills,while the increasing pressure will lead to more people moving out or reduce the quality of life.It is recommended that governments should provide more inclusive,affordable,and diversified housing for the floating population to share the development achievements,so as to promote the ultimate realization of the development goals of"houses are for living in,not for speculation"and common prosperity.
作者
叶玲
王捷凯
宋伟轩
YE Ling;WANG Jiekai;SONGWeixuan(Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,CAS,Nanjing 210008,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Key Laboratory ofWatershed Geographic Sciences,CAS,Nanjing 210008,China)
出处
《地理科学进展》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第11期2073-2085,共13页
Progress in Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42171234)。
关键词
流动人口
住房负担
居留意愿
房价
上海
floating population
housing burden
settlement intention
housing prices
Shanghai Municipality
