摘要
“复合联盟战略”是主权国家基于多维地理空间,维护多重目标,依靠多种动员手段,与多重合作对象建立的差序化复合安全共同体,其中促进变量与阻碍变量处于一组动态平衡之中。阿拉伯剧变以来,中东地区多极化趋势加速,土耳其从国家整体利益出发,主动塑造安全合作架构,形成任务导向型的复合联盟战略:在欧洲方向,调整与北约的不对称军事联盟,寻求对等伙伴地位;在中东地区,以塑造伊斯兰国家的发展模式、推广现代伊斯兰为指归,打造亲穆兄会联盟;在中亚地区,以族裔认同为抓手,推动泛突厥联盟。土耳其复合联盟战略具有互补性、塑造性和动态性,与安全合作伙伴既联合又斗争,各联盟之间既牵制又联动,体现了土耳其重塑地区秩序的大国角色定位。就成效而言,土耳其借助复合联盟战略增强了地区影响力,彰显了自身外交的独立性和战略自主性,但也产生了诸多负面影响。对内,它加重了土耳其的经济负担,有透支国家战略资源的风险;对外,它加剧了对手的安全困境,引起地区格局的阵营化。土耳其的复合联盟战略是其身份多样性、大国角色定位和国内物质能力平衡的产物,反映了新时期联盟政治的功能化转型。
The“Composite Alignment Strategy”is a composite security community established by sovereign states,together with their partners.It is based on multi-dimensional geographical space,aims to maintain multiple goals and relays on various mobilization means.In this strategy,the promoting variables and hindering variables are in a set of dynamic balance.Since the Arab upheaval at the end of2010,the trend of multi-polarity in the Middle East has accelerated,and Türkiye has taken the initiative to shape the security cooperation architecture and formed a task-oriented composite alignment strategy.It includes regulating the military alliance with NATO to create an equal security partnership;leading a pro-Muslim Brotherhood entente to promote modern Islamism;and using ethnic identity as a grip to promote the development of the Pan-Turkic alignment.Türkiye’s composite alignment strategy is multi-layered,proactive and dynamic.It both unites and struggles with its partners,and this overlapping and interlocking alignment strategy reflects the great power ambitions of the Erdogan government.Türkiye’s composite alignment strategy is a balance between the diversity of its identity,its role as a major regional power and its national capabilities.In terms of effectiveness,Türkiye’s composite alignment strategy has enhanced its regional influence,demonstrated its independence and strategic autonomy,but it also has some negative effects.Internally,it has increased Türkiye’s economic burden and risked overdrawing the country’s strategic resources;externally,it has exacerbated the security dilemmas of its adversaries and provoked the camping of the regional landscape.Under the background of the new era,the alliance politics of great powers is becoming increasingly utilitarian,and multi-level,multi-dimensional and task-oriented alignment is becoming a trend.
出处
《西亚非洲》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第6期125-155,160,共32页
West Asia and Africa
基金
国家社科基金青年项目“土耳其推动突厥语国家一体化的动因、影响和对策研究”(22CGJ040)的阶段性成果。
关键词
复合联盟战略
土耳其
中东安全
准联盟
不对称军事联盟
亲穆兄会联盟
泛突厥联盟
Composite Alignment Strategy
Türkiye
Middle East security
quasi-alliance
asymmetric military alliance
pro-Muslim Brotherhood alignment
Pan-Turkic alignment
