摘要
利用集合经验模态分解和Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,对珠江三角洲顶部分流节点马口站、三水站及其上游控制站点梧州站、石角站1959-2020年实测水文资料进行分析,研究了关键节点地貌演变及径潮动力变化影响作用下顶部节点的分流特征、相关性及趋势变化。研究表明:三水站年均分流比于1988年突变、洪季平均分流比于1991年突变,枯季平均分流比无显著突变现象,但受珠江三角洲大范围地形下切,特别是关键节点地貌剧烈变化及其造成的径潮动力调整的影响,2010-2020年较2000-2010年枯季珠江三角洲顶点分流呈现不稳定性加剧的情况;三水站与马口站洪季分流比存在较强相关性,且2005年前后开始呈现增强的趋势,年均相关性增加约0.0016,相反三水站与石角站、梧州站则始终呈现减弱的趋势,年均相关性分别减弱-0.0047、-0.0033,三水站分流受马口站影响逐年加剧;三水站与梧州站、石角站、马口站相关系数的变化均存在不足5个月和约1年的高频变化周期,且三水站的分流比呈现出比其余三站更为明显短周期变化,且存在洪枯季和年际变化的差异化特征;长期来看,无论从年均亦或洪枯季,三水站分流比均呈现增大的趋势,马口、三水站分流均匀性不断增强。目前,珠江三角洲顶部节点的分流已由单纯的径流作用变为径潮共同作用的复杂过程,潮波动力因子对于三角洲顶部节点分流的影响已经不容忽视。
By using the methods of ensemble empirical mode decomposition and Mann-Kendall mutation test,the measured hydrological data of the top flow node and its upstream control station in the Pearl River Delta from 1959 to 2020 are analyzed,the distributary characteristics,correlation and trend change of the top node under the influence of geomorphic evolution and runoff-tidal current dynamic change are studied.The results show that because of the change of delta topography and its impact on the adjustment of runoff dynamics,the sudden change year of annual average diversion ratio and flood season average diversion ratio of Sanshui Station is 1988 and 1991,no evidence shows that dry season average diversion ratio has significant abrupt change.However,due to the large scale topographic cutting in the Pearl River Delta,especially the dramatic geomorphic change at key nodes and the resulting adjustment of runoff-tidal current dynamics,the divergence at the peak of the Pearl River Delta in dry seasons from 2010 to 2020 was more unstable than that from 2000 to 2010.There is a strong correlation between Sanshui Station and Makou Station in flood seasons,and it began to show an increasing trend around 2005 with an annual increase of about 0.0016.On the contrary,Sanshui Station,Shijiao Station and Wuzhou Station always showed a weakening trend,with an annual decrease of-0.0047 and-0.0033,Sanshui Station is increasingly affected by Makou Station year by year.The correlation coefficients of Sanshui Station,Wuzhou Station,Shijiao Station,and Makou Station all show high frequency variation cycles of less than 5 months and about 1 year,the diverting ratio of Sanshui Station showed more obvious short period variation than the other three stations and there were differences of flood and dry season and inter-annual variation inside.In the long run,the diversion ratio of Sanshui Station shows an increasing trend regardless of the annual average or flood season,and the diversion uniformity of Makou and Sanshui Stations keeps increasing.A
作者
黄鹏飞
刘培
许伟
HUANG Peng-fei;LIU Pei;XU Wei(Pearl River Hydraulic Scientific Research Institute,Pearl River Conservancy Committee,Guangzhou 510611,Guangdong Province,China;Key Laboratory of Pearl River Estuary Regulation and Protection of Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510611,Guangdong Province,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2022年第12期86-92,共7页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
关键词
顶部节点
分流特征
相关性
分流趋势
影响因素
top node
diversion characteristics
relevance
diversion trend
influence factor
