摘要
基于广东省51个水文站的1977—2014年的年最大洪峰流量数据,分析了年最大洪峰流量序列的特征和趋势,综合运用MK和Pettitt等数理统计方法研究年最大洪峰流量的变化趋势,同时基于单变量和多变量Copula函数进一步分析洪水重现期及洪水联合分布,揭示土地利用对广东年最大洪峰流量频率的影响机制。研究结果表明:(1)广东省29(22)个站点年最大洪峰流量有增加(减小)的趋势,且北江的三水、石角、高道和西江的小罗年最大洪峰流量呈显著增加趋势,站点大多数集中于北江流域和西江流域;(2)Inverse Gaussian和Log-logistic是年最大洪峰流量拟合最优的单变量分布函数,Clayton Copula是年最大洪峰流量拟合最优的Copula函数;(3)在1977—2014年间,51个站点中有10个站点(其中六个集中在鉴江和漠阳江水系,其余集中在北江和西江水系)发生了百年一遇的洪水,有的甚至远远超过百年一遇,剩余的站点洪水的重现期多集中在20~30 a一遇;(4)选取考虑两站点(高道站与石角站、连平站与顺天站、马口站与三水站、潮安站与东桥园站、合江站和高州站)间年最大洪峰流量的联合分布情况,超过20 a一遇的洪水发生的概率很低,同时5种年联合分布情况下联合重现期和同现重现期随着流量增大而增大,同现重现期总体大于联合重现期。广东省51个站点中,无论是年最大洪峰流量的空间分布还是发生年份的时间分布上都受到了城市化进程下土地利用类型变化的影响,二者在空间和时间上存在一致性。
Based on the data of the annual flood peak flow rate of 51 hydrological stations in Guangdong Province from 1977 to 2014, the characteristics and trend of the annual maximum flood peak flow rate series are analyzed herein;in which the trend change of the annual maximum flood peak flow rate is studied with the mathematical and statistical methods such as MK and Pettitt, etc., while the flood return period and the joint flood distribution are further analyzed based on univariate and multivariate Copula functions for revealing the influencing mechanism of land use on the frequency of annual maximum flood peak flow rate in Guangdong Province. The study result shows that(1) the annual maximum flood peak flow rates obtained from 29(22) hydrological stations in Guangdong Province tend to increase(decrease), and the annual maximum flood peak flow rates at the hydrological stations of Sanshui, Shijiao and Gaodao of Beijiang River and Xiaoluo of Xijiang River tend to increase significantly, of which most of the hydrological stations are concentrated in Beijiang River Watershed and Xijiang River Watershed;(2) inverse Gaussian and Log-logistic are the optimal univariate distribution functions for fitting the annual maximum flood peak flow rate, while Clayton Copula is the optimal Copula function for fitting the annual maximum flood peak flow rate;(3) during the period 1977-2014, the floods with the return period of 100 years occurred at 10 of the 51 hydrological stations(in which 6 stations were concentrated in the water systems of Jianjiang River and Moyangjiang River, and the others were concentrated in the water systems of Beijiang River and Xijiang River), of which the flood return periods of the floods occurred at some of the hydrological stations even far exceeded the return period of 100 years, but the flood return periods of the remainders were mostly concentrated at the return periods of 20~30 a;(4) under the selection and consideration of the joint distribution of the annual maximum flood peak rate between two hydr
作者
梁媛媛
孙鹏
张强
LIANG Yuanyuan;SUN Peng;ZHANG Qiang(Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Faculty of Geographical Science,Academy of Disaster Risk Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;School of Geography and Tourism,Anhui Normal University,Wuhu 241002,Anhui,China)
出处
《水利水电技术（中英文）》
北大核心
2022年第2期1-17,共17页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41771536)
安徽省自然科学基金优青项目(2108085Y13)
高校优秀青年人才支持计划重点项目(gxyqZD2021094)
安徽高校协同创新项目(GXXT 2019047)
北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室2019年研究生开放课题。
关键词
年最大洪峰流量
COPULA
频率分析
土地利用
广东省
洪水
气候变化
annual maximum flood peak flow rate
Copula
frequency analysis
land use
Guangdong Province
flood
climate change
