摘要
为准确刻画空中交通运输系统安全保障能力,引入韧性概念评估其抵御风险与恢复水平。建立层次化的贝叶斯网络模型,分析影响空中交通运输系统正常运行因素,评价系统韧性,并对2010—2019年中国空中交通运输系统韧性及变化趋势进行定量分析。通过调整模型各结点,分析因素对系统整体韧性水平的影响,以新冠疫情下底层结点的变化情况为例对系统整体韧性水平变化进行评估。研究结果表明,空中交通运输系统的总体韧性评价值在54%~60.2%之间,且随着社会经济不断发展呈现波动上升的趋势。在新冠疫情影响下系统服务水平受到较大影响,但系统整体仍能维持一定的韧性。贝叶斯网络模型较好地量化了空中交通运输系统韧性,是提高系统韧性的基础,为空中交通运输业可持续发展及抵御冲击提供有效调控策略和理论方法。
In order to accurately describe the security capability of the air transportation system,the concept of resilience is introduced to evaluate its risk resistance and recovery level.First,a hierarchical Bayesian network model is established,and the factors that affect the normal operation of the air transportation system are analyzed.Second,the system resilience is evaluated,and the resilience and changing trends of China's air transportation system from 2010 to 2019 are quantitatively analyzed.Third,the impact of factors on the overall resilience level is analyzed,and the change of the underlying nodes during the COVID-19 epidemic is taken as an example.Then,the overall resilience level of the system is evaluated through adjusting each node of the model.The research results show that the overall resilience evaluation value of the air transportation system is between 54%and 60.2%,and it exhibits a fluctuating upward trend with the continuous social and economic development.Under the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic,the service level of the system has been greatly affected,but the overall system can still maintain a certain degree of resilience.The Bayesian network model can better quantify the resilience of the air transportation system,and help improve the resilience of the system.This method provides effective control strategies and theoretical methods for the sustainable development and resistance to shocks of the air transportation industry.
作者
王兴隆
赵俊妮
贺敏
WANG Xinglong;ZHAO Junni;HE Min(College of Air Traffic Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Nanjing Les Information Technology Co.,Ltd.Nanjing 210014,China)
出处
《南京航空航天大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第6期1121-1130,共10页
Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics
基金
国家重点研发计划课题基金(2020YFB1600101)
天津市教育委员会自然科学重点基金(2020ZD01)。
关键词
航空运输
系统韧性
贝叶斯网络
系统风险
民用航空
air transportation
system resilience
Bayesian network
system risk
civil aviation
