摘要
耕地是人类生存和社会发展的重要物质基础和最基本的生产资料,耕地的合理开发和利用对于稳定粮食生产和保障粮食的有效供给、促进农村经济和社会稳定至关重要.运用数据包络分析方法对2009—2019年云南省及其16州市的耕地利用效率进行评价并分析其时空变化特征,基于Tobit模型对耕地利用效率的影响因素进行研究.结果表明:2009—2019年云南省耕地利用综合效率未达有效且总体呈下降趋势,综合效率变化和规模效率的变化呈相近的下降趋势,纯技术效率的变化相对较小且多数年份保持有效;16个州市的耕地利用效率及其变化趋势各不相同,可分为稳定有效状态型、持续增长达有效状态型、持续下降至无效型和波动型4个类型,8个州市的耕地利用效率已达有效,多为云南农业生产条件较好的传统农业主产区(怒江州除外),也是受国家各项优惠政策影响较大的地区,除玉溪市外主要分布在云南的边缘地区;从耕地利用效率的空间格局变化来看,云南省耕地利用效率在2009年以高值区最多,高值区多连片分布于云南省的东西两侧,中部地区高值区较少,但到2019年,高值区减少且分布区向云南西部、南部和东北部边缘地区收缩;从耕地利用效率的影响因素来看,人均GDP、农业发展水平、主要农产品产量等因素对耕地利用效率有积极的作用,化肥投入和农村人均可支配收入对耕地利用效率有消极的影响.
Cultivated land is an important material basis and the most basic means of production for human survival and social development.The rational development and utilization of cultivated land is very important for stabilizing food production,ensuring effective food supply,and promoting rural economic and social stability.This paper first estimates the cultivated land use efficiency of Yunnan and its 16 areas from 2009 to 2019 by using the data envelopment analysis method,then analyzes its temporal and spatial change characteristics,and finally studies the influencing factors of cultivated land use efficiency by using Tobit model.The results show that the comprehensive efficiency of cultivated land use in Yunnan was not at effective level and a downward trend from 2009 to 2019;the comprehensive efficiency of cultivated land use in Yunnan among them;the change of comprehensive efficiency and scale efficiency in a similar downward trend,while the change of pure technical efficiency being relatively small and effective in most years.The cultivated land use efficiency and its changing trend of 16 areas in Yunnan are different,which can be roughly divided into four types:stable effective state type,continuous increase to effective state type,continuous decline to ineffective state type and fluctuation type.The utilization efficiency of cultivated land in 8 areas had reached an effective level.Most of them were traditional agricultural main producing areas with good agricultural production conditions in Yunnan(except Nujiang Prefecture),and were also heavily influenced by various preferential policies of the state.Except Yuxi City,they were mainly distributed in the marginal areas of Yunnan.In terms of the spatial pattern change of cultivated land use efficiency,there were many areas with high value of cultivated land use efficiency in Yunnan in 2009,which were distributed contiguously,mainly in the east and west sides of Yunnan.By 2019,there were few high-value areas in the central region in Yunnan,and the high value area
作者
童绍玉
周欣雨
TONG Shaoyu;ZHOU Xinyu(School of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming Yunnan 650221,China)
出处
《曲靖师范学院学报》
2022年第6期73-83,共11页
Journal of Qujing Normal University
基金
云南省哲学社会科学基地项目“云南高原特色农业对气候变化的适应性研究”(JD2018YB03).
关键词
耕地利用效率
数据包络分析法
TOBIT模型
影响因素
云南省
utilization efficiency of cultivated land
data envelopment analysis
Tobit model
influencing factor
Yunnan
