摘要
[研究目的]近年来突发公共事件网络舆情反转引发舆论海啸时有发生,给社会治理带来了挑战。探究突发公共事件网络舆情反转强度生成机理,有助于理清突发公共事件高强度和低强度反转的成因及两者的生成差异,从而最大程度上降低网络舆情反转带来的负面影响,提升政府的舆情引导能力。[研究方法]以15个突发公共事件网络舆情反转案例为研究样本,运用模糊集定性比较分析方法(fsQCA),从舆情反转的首发阶段、发酵阶段、反转阶段提取首发平台、事件热度、公众关注度、媒体报道量、政府干预、反转时差、反转归因7个前因变量,探究突发公共事件网络舆情反转强度的组态构型和生成路径。[研究结论]结果显示,网络舆情反转强度生成更倾向于是多元组态影响的结果;依据核心条件,将舆情反转高低强度生成共10条路径归纳为5种组合类型,分别为累积蓄力型、高温冲击型、官方缺位型、标签弱化型、低温平缓型。反转时期成为整个网络舆情反转过程的核心阶段。
[Research purpose] In recent years, public opinion tsunamis caused by the reversal of network public opinion in public emergencies have occurred from time to time, which has brought challenges to social governance. Exploring the generation mechanism of network public opinion reversal intensity in sudden public events will help to clarify the causes of high-intensity and low-intensity reversal of public emergencies and the difference between the two, and minimize the impact of network public opinion reversal. The negative impact of the government will enhance the government’s ability to guide public opinion. [Research method] This paper takes 15 cases of online public opinion reversal in sudden public events as research samples, and uses the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis method(fsQCA) to extract the initial platform, event popularity, public opinion from the initial stage, fermentation stage, and reversal stage of public opinion reversal. Seven antecedent variables including attention, media coverage, government intervention, reversal jet lag, and reversal attribution are used to explore the configuration and generation path of the reversal intensity of network public opinion in emergencies. [Research conclusion] The results show that the generation of network public opinion reversal intensity is more likely to be the result of the influence of multiple configurations. According to the core conditions, a total of 10 paths for generating high and low intensity of public opinion reversal are classified into 5 combination types, namely accumulative force type, high temperature shock type, official absence type, label weakening type, and low temperature gentle type. The inversion period has become the core stage of the entire network public opinion inversion process.
作者
李晚莲
蒋化
曾锋
Li Wanlian;Jiang Hua;Zeng Feng(College of Public Management&Law,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128;Emergency Management Teaching and Research Department,Party School of Guangdong Provincial Party Committee of C.P.C,Guangzhou 510053)
出处
《情报杂志》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第11期129-136,54,共9页
Journal of Intelligence
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“突发公共事件非理性网络舆论扩散的阻断机制研究”(编号:17BGL180)阶段性成果
湖南省研究生科研创新项目资助(编号:QL20210163)。
关键词
突发公共事件
网络舆情
反转强度
生成机理
fsQCA
舆情引导
public emergencies
network public opinion
reversal strength
formation mechanism
qualitative comparative analysis of fuzzy sets
public opinion guide
