摘要
伴随电改工作的不断推进,各地积极开展增量配电网项目。为评估增量配电网项目的投资风险,为投资者提供理论与技术支撑,指导投资者进行决策,通过分析文献和已落地项目实施经验反馈等识别增量配电网项目投资风险的主要影响因素,构建包含规划、经济、技术、政策和用户的风险指标体系。考虑风险评估过程的不确定性和复杂性,采用BWM确定指标权重,引入TFN对增量配电网项目投资风险进行模糊综合评估,并结合实际项目进行案例分析,验证了评估模型的有效性,对促进项目落地和持续发展具有重要意义。
With the continuous promotion of power reform,all regions actively carry out incremental distribution network projects.In order to evaluate the investment risk of incremental distribution network projects and provide theoretical and technical support to investors and guide investors to make decisions,this paper identifies the main influencing factors of incremental distribution network project investment risk through literature analysis and implementation experience feedback of the implemented projects,and establish a set of risk index system involving planning,economy,technology,policies and users.Considering the uncertainty and complexity of the risk assessment process,BWM is used to determine the index weight,and TFN is introduced to evaluate the investment risk of incremental distribution network projects.The effectiveness of the evaluation model is verified by case analysis of the actual project,which is of great significance to promote the implementation and sustainable development of the project.
作者
周豪奇
余云川
王丽娜
刘芳彤
ZHOU Haoqi;YU Yunchuan;WANG Lina;LIU Fangtong(Jiangsu Keneng Power Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210036,China;不详)
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》
2022年第5期800-805,838,共7页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering
关键词
增量配电网
投资风险
评估
最优最劣法
三角模糊数
incremental distribution network
investment risk
assessment
the best and worst method
triangular fuzzy number
