摘要
运用熵权法和综合评价法对长江经济带2011—2020年粮食安全进行评价,并运用Tobit模型分析各因素对粮食安全的影响。结果表明:①从粮食安全得分来看,长江经济带整体粮食安全得分均值仅为0.414,仅达到一般水平,存在一定的风险;中游粮食安全水平虽最高,但也仅有0.443,下游处于中间水平,上游则是达到了不安全水平;各省(市)粮食安全得分均未超过0.600,浙江、湖南、重庆、贵州等4个省(市)粮食安全得分均低于0.400。②从影响因素来看。城镇化率、财政支农占比和人口总数对长江经济带整体粮食安全的促进作用,人均机械总动力的促进作用不显著,地均化肥施用量和造林总面积的消极作用不显著。
This paper uses entropy weight method and comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the food security of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2011 to 2020,and uses Tobit model to analyze the impact of various factors on food security.The results show that:①From the score of food security,the average score of overall food security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is only 0.414,which only reaches the general level,and there are certain risks.Although the food security level in the middle reaches is the highest,it is only 0.443,the downstream is at the middle level,and the upstream has reached the unsafe level.The food security scores of all provinces(cities)did not exceed 0.600,and the food security scores of four provinces(cities)including Zhejiang Province,Hunan Province,Chongqing and Guizhou Province were lower than 0.400.②From the perspective of influencing factors,the urbanization rate,the proportion of financial support for agriculture and the total population have no significant promoting effect on the overall food security of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,the promoting effect of per capita total mechanical power is not significant,and the negative effect of per capita fertilizer application and total afforestation area is not significant.
作者
黄健枫
HUANG Jian-feng(School of Economics and Management,Yangtze University,Jingzhou,Hubei 434023)
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
2022年第21期221-224,245,共5页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
关键词
粮食安全
熵权法
综合评价法
TOBIT模型
长江经济带
Food security
Entropy weight method
Comprehensive evaluation method
Tobit model
Yangtze River Economic Belt
