摘要
[目的]建立基于气象条件和连续5日平均单产关系的茉莉花产量预测模型,为产量和价格预报提供模型和参数。[方法]以广西横州茉莉花为研究对象,筛选单产影响因素并建模。[结果]横州茉莉花连续5日平均单产预测概念模型为Y_(i)=f(Y_(i-1);连续5日平均温度的平均X_(1);连续5日日照时数的平均X_(2);连续5日平均相对湿度的平均X_(3));使用2018—2019年数据建立的模型为Y_(i)=0.4101+0.9350×Y_(i-1)+0.0431×X_(1)+0.0213×X_(2)-0.0167×X_(3)(r=0.943^(**),n=216),模型自回归合格率为91.67%;使用2020年数据对2018—2019年模型验证,结果为模型合格率83.21%。[结论]使用气象条件和连续5日平均单产可以建立茉莉花每日平均单产预测模型。
[Objective]The aim of this study was to establish a prediction model of jasmine yield based on the relationship between meteorological conditions and average yield per unit area for 5 consecutive days,and to provide models and parameters for yield and price prediction.[Method]Taking jasmine in Hengzhou of Guangxi as the research object,the influencing factors of yield were screened and the model was established.[Result]The 5-day average yield prediction conceptual model of jasmine in Hengzhou was Y_(i)=f(Y_(i-1);the 5-day average temperature X_(1);the 5-day average sunshine hours X_(2);the 5-day average relative humidity X_(3)).Using the data of 2018-2019,the model was set up as Y_(i)=0.4101+0.9350×Y_(i-1)+0.0431×X_(1)+0.0213×X_(2)-0.0167×X_(3)(r=0.943^(**),n=216),the pass rate of autoregressive model was 91.67%.Using the data of 2020 to validate the model from 2018 to 2019,the result was that the qualified rate of the model was 83.21%.[Conclusion]The daily average yield prediction model of jasmine can be established by using meteorological conditions and average yield of 5 consecutive days.
作者
冯鑫鑫
侯彦林
李金梅
贾书刚
王铄今
刘书田
潘桂颖
侯显达
FENG Xin-xin(Guangxi Geographical Indication Crops Research Center of Big Data Mining and Experimental Engineering Technology,Nanning Normal University,Nanning,Guangxi 530001;Key Laboratory of Environmental Evolution and Resource Utilization of Beibu Gulf,Nanning Normal University,Nanning,Guangxi 530001;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Process and Intelligent Simulation,Nanning Normal University,Nanning,Guangxi 530001;School of Geographic Science and Planning,Nanning Normal University,Nanning,Guangxi 530001)
出处
《园艺与种苗》
CAS
2022年第10期8-11,22,共5页
Horticulture & Seed
基金
广西科技基地和人才专项(桂科AD18126012)
广西八桂学者专项经费(侯彦林)
广西一流学科(地理学)建设项目。
关键词
茉莉花
产量
气象条件
预测模型
横州
广西
Jasmine
Yield
Meteorological conditions
Forecasting model
Hengzhou
Guangxi
