摘要
果树晚霜冻害频发,严重影响了果树的经济效益。为了提升晚霜冻害预报预警能力,分析了深州市终霜日期和早春气温的时间演变特征,初步分析了晚霜冻害与暖春、晚霜的相关关系。结果表明:深州市的终霜日期呈现出明显的提前趋势,存在准16年的振荡周期,1997年后年际间终霜日期波动增大,春季气温的不稳定性增强;早春平均气温表现为上升趋势,存在准7年和19~20年的显著振荡周期。气候变化未改变暖春和晚霜同年出现的概率;暖春和晚霜同时出现的年份,晚霜冻害出现的概率较大。
The late frost damage of fruit trees occurs frequently,which seriously affects the economic benefits of cultivation.In order to improve the prediction and early warning ability of late frost damage,this paper analyzes the time evolution characteristics of the last frost date and early spring temperature in Shenzhou City,and preliminarily analyzes the correlation between late frost damage and warm spring and late frost.The results show that the final frost date in Shenzhou City presents an obvious advance trend,with a quasi—16 years oscillation period.After 1997,the interannual fluctuation of the final frost date increases,and the instability of the spring temperature increases;The average temperature in early spring shows an upward trend,and there are significant oscillation periods of quasi—7 years and 19~20 years.Climate change has not changed the probability of warm spring and late frost occurring in the same year;In the years when warm spring and late frost occur at the same time,the probability of late frost damage is greater.
作者
王荣英
王琼
关钧元
王霞
WANG Rongying(Hengshui Meteorological Bureau,Hengshui,Hebei 053000)
出处
《农业灾害研究》
2022年第9期109-112,共4页
Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology
基金
河北省气象局项目“河北省桃晚霜冻害气象指标研究”(20KY22)
河北省衡水市气象局项目“衡水深州桃树开花期预报”(hsky202210)。
关键词
暖春
晚霜冻害
气候
Warm spring
Late frost damage
Climate
