摘要
在政策梳理基础上,基于典型案例和2012—2020年中国省际面板数据分别对农业“保险+信贷”政策影响农业信贷发展的成效进行典型省份“点”的剖析和全国“面”的门槛检验。研究发现:在典型案例分析层面,农业“保险+信贷”形成了以“政策性农业保险+农林牧渔贷款+财政补贴”为样板的实践模式,该模式以农户投保政策性农业保险为前提,以政府对农业保险保费补贴和农业贷款贴息为保障;在全国面板数据检验中,农业“保险+信贷”政策对农业信贷具有显著正向作用,但受农业保险发展水平双重门槛效应影响,即农业“保险+信贷”政策对农业信贷的影响存在适度最优水平;进一步机制分析表明,农业保险平滑农户收入波动效应是农业保险发展水平双重门槛效应存在的重要原因。建议一方面着力提高农业保险密度和深度,另一方面提升农业保险合同完备性,进行农业保险服务创新和国际经验借鉴,以期实现农业“保险+信贷”支持农业信贷发展的最优成效。
On the basis of policy sorting,based on typical cases and 2012-2020 inter-provincial panel data in China,the effect of the agricultural“insurance+credit”policy on the development of agricultural credit was analyzed for typical provincial“points”and the national“surface”threshold test.The results show that:on the level of typical case analysis,agricultural“insurance+credit”has formed a practical model of“policy agricultural insurance+loans for agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery+financial subsidies”,this model is based on the premise that farmers buy policy oriented agricultural insurance,and is guaranteed by the government′s premium subsidy for agricultural insurance and agricultural loan discount;On the national test level,agricultural“insurance+credit”policy has a significant positive effect on agricultural credit,but this effect will be affected by the double threshold effect of the development level of agricultural insurance.That is,there is a moderate optimal level of influence of agricultural“insurance+credit”on agricultural credit.Further mechanism analysis shows that the effect of agricultural insurance smoothing the fluctuation of farmers′income is an important reason for the existence of the double threshold effect of agricultural insurance development level.It is suggested to improve the density and depth of agricultural insurance on the one hand,and on the other hand,improve the completeness of agricultural insurance contracts,and carry out agricultural insurance service innovation and learn from international experience,in order to achieve the optimal effect of agricultural“insurance+credit”in supporting the development of agricultural credit.
作者
叶明华
陈康
YE Ming-hua;CHEN Kang(Faculty of Economics and Management,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China)
出处
《华南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第6期66-77,共12页
Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BJY261)。
关键词
农业政策
农户
农业保险
农业信贷
agricultural policy
peasant household
agricultural insurance
agricultural credit
