摘要
中美两国在国际贸易的高度依赖意味着巨大的产业利益,在贸易往来中处于比较劣势的美国进口竞争产业会通过它们所在选区的议员表达对华贸易保护的利益诉求;国会议员为赢得选举或连任,必然重视其呼声,从而将贸易保护主义嵌入到对华贸易政策决策过程中。文章在增加值贸易核算框架下构建美国州级层面的“进口竞争影响指数”,结果显示美国产业受到中国进口竞争的实际影响程度较小,且主要集中于传统制造业州域;其次,文章利用Probit模型验证了进口竞争产业对国会涉华贸易保护法案投票具有显著影响,异质性分析表明,受进口竞争影响的劳动、资本密集型产业及低技术产业会促使国会在涉华贸易保护法案投赞成票,知识密集型产业及高技术产业则与之相反;进一步运用中介效应模型发现,进口竞争产业通过劳工利益集团的政治捐资对国会在涉华贸易保护法案的投票具有正向中介作用,而商业利益集团起到的负向作用一定程度上遮掩了进口竞争产业对国会施加的效果。
This paper constructs the “Import Competition Impact Index” at the state level of the United States under the framework of TiVA accounting, and the results show that the actual impact of China’s import competition on the industries of the United States is small and mainly concentrates in traditional manufacturing states. In addition, the paper uses Probit model to verify that import competitive industries have a significant impact on the vote of the Congress of the United States on China-related trade protection act. Heterogeneity analysis shows that labor-intensive industries, capital-intensive industries and low-tech industries affected by import competition will urge the Congress of the United States to vote in favor of China-related trade protection act, while knowledge-intensive industries and high-tech industries are on the contrary;based on mediating effect model, it is found that import competitive industries have a positive mediating effect on the vote of the Congress of the United States on China-related trade protection act through the political donations of the labor interest groups, while the negative effect of the commercial interest groups overshadows the effect of import competitive industries on the Congress of the United States to some extent.
作者
张慧智
张晓桐
ZHANG Hui-zhi;ZHANG Xiao-tong
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第9期4-20,共17页
International Economics and Trade Research
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(19BGJ048)。
关键词
进口竞争
美国产业利益
国会对华贸易保护政策
影响因素
中介效应
import competition
industrial interests of the United States
trade protection policy of the Congress of the United States towards China
influencing factors
mediating effect
