摘要
物流业在推动中国国民经济高质量发展的同时,也消耗了大量能源资源,是中国二氧化碳排放的重要来源行业之一。基于长江经济带2010—2019年的面板数据,根据IPCC所提供的估算方法,估算了长江经济带11个省份在2010—2019年间物流业的碳排放量。并在此基础上,利用脱钩模型分析了11个省份物流业碳排放的脱钩状态,通过建立回归模型分析长江经济带物流业碳排放的影响因素。结果发现:2010—2019年间,长江经济带11个省物流业和物流业产值都呈现增长趋势,省份之间脱钩状态具有明显差异,大多省份在最终呈现弱脱钩状态;影响因素中,物流规模、能源结构、城镇化水平、科技水平对长江经济带整体物流业碳排放水平有正向促进作用,产业结构和碳排放效率有负向影响,但是对长江上中下游有不同的影响效果。具体可以通过完善长江经济带物流碳减排政策制度、调整能源结构、推动新能源在物流行业的使用等低碳路径,达到经济与生态协调发展的目标。
While promoting the high-quality development of China,s national economy,the logistics industry also consumes a lot of energy resources.It is one of the important sources of carbon dioxide emissions in China.Based on the panel data of the Yangtze River Economic Zone from 2010 to 2019,and according to the estimation method provided by IPCC,the carbon emissions of the logistics industry in 11 provinces of the Yangtze River Economic Zone from 2010 to 2019 are estimated.On this basis,the decoupling model is used to analyze the decoupling status of logistics carbon emissions in 11 provinces,and the influencing factors of logistics carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Zone are analyzed by establishing a regression model.The results show that from 2010 to 2019,the logistics industry and the output value of the logistics industry in 11 provinces of the Yangtze River Economic Zone all showed an increasing trend,and the decoupling status among provinces was obviously different,and most provinces finally showed a weak decoupling status.Among the influencing factors,logistics scale,energy structure,urbanization level and science and technology level have a positive effect on the overall logistics carbon emission level of the Yangtze River Economic Zone,while industrial structure and carbon emission efficiency have a negative effect,but they have different effects on the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.Specifically,we can improve the logistics carbon emission reduction policies and systems in the Yangtze River economic zone and adjust energy structure,promote the use of new energy in the logistics industry and other low-carbon paths to achieve the goal of coordinated developme of economy and ecology.
作者
庞欣玥
仲云云
PANG Xinyue;ZHONG Yunyun(School of Management,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210000,China)
出处
《物流科技》
2022年第10期63-66,75,共5页
Logistics Sci-Tech
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71803088)
教育部青年基金项目(18YJCZH268)
江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目(KYCX22_0894)。
关键词
长江经济带
碳排放
脱钩效应
影响因素
Yangtze River Economic Zone
carbon emissions
decoupling effect
influence factor
