摘要
通过构建局部三期OLG模型和广义泊松模型,探讨非正规就业对个体生育意愿的影响。研究发现,非正规就业能够显著提高个体总体生育意愿以及二孩、三孩的“多生意愿”,在运用工具变量、倾向得分匹配等方法缓解内生性问题后结论依然稳健;异质性结果显示,非正规就业对生育意愿的激励效应在农村户籍和男性群体中更为明显,且当配偶也是非正规就业时,激励效应会有所减弱;机制分析表明,非正规就业通过“养孩防老”的生育观念和降低养育成本预期提升了个体生育意愿;结合本文结论,应该完善非正规就业群体就业、生育保障,推动基本公共服务均等化等政策。
By constructing a partial three-period OLG model and a generalized Poisson model,it shows that informal employment can improve the individual’s fertility intention and the willingness to have a second child and third child.The results are still significant after the use of instrumental variables and PSM method.The incentive effect of informal employment on fertility intention is more obvious in rural household registration and male groups,and when the spouse is also in informal employment,the incentive effect will be weakened.Mechanism analysis shows that informal employment improves individual fertility intention through the concept of“raising children for the purpose of being looked after in old age”and reducing the expectation of parenting costs;further,public education services have a negative moderating effect on the benchmark effect,weakening the incentive effect of informal employment on fertility intention.The analysis shows that informal workers’expectation of offspring education inequality leads to a decline in their fertility intention.Combined with the conclusions of this paper,we put forward policy suggestions such as improving the employment and maternity security of informal employment groups,and promoting the equalization of public services.
作者
刘成奎
郑李明
Liu Chengkui;Zheng Liming
出处
《财经科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第9期107-122,共16页
Finance & Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“机会平等视角下的公共服务供给与缩小收入分配差距研究”(18BJY213)的资助。
关键词
非正规就业
生育意愿
OLG模型
Informal Employment
Fertility Intention
OLG Model
