摘要
本文采用Holt-Winters模型对我国2014—2021年生猪价格月度数据进行拟合,分析生猪价格的长期趋势与季节波动。结果表明:生猪价格具有线性趋势和季节特征,适用于Holt-Winters加法模型的拟合;季节指数的2次波峰在9月和12月,且9月高于12月;波谷在4月;季节指数在上半年的波动比下半年更大。
This paper used the Holt-Winters model to fit the monthly data of hog prices in our country from 2014 to 2021,and analyzed the long-term trend and seasonal fluctuations of hog prices.The results showed that the hog price had a linear trend and seasonal characteristics,which was suitable for the fitting of the Holt-Winters additive model.The two peaks of the seasonal index appeared in September and December,and September was higher than December,and the trough appeared in April.The fluctuation range of the seasonal index in the first half of the year was larger than that in the second half of the year.
作者
黎庆莹
LI Qingying(College of Computational Science,Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering,Guangzhou Guangdong 510225)
出处
《现代农业科技》
2022年第19期171-174,共4页
Modern Agricultural Science and Technology
