摘要
根据可行能力贫困理论,提升贫困者摆脱贫困现状的能力是解决贫困问题的关键。以呼包鄂榆城市群的交通发展与农村收入为对象,将交通划分为城市和乡村两部分,农村收入按来源分为农业和非农业收入,通过建立VAR模型分析4个变量的相互影响关系。探究城乡两地交通对于农村收入获取能力的影响,同时,分别讨论农村两类收入的改变是否会对城乡交通发展带来冲击。分析结果表明:农村交通发展在前期促进农业收入增加,而城市交通发展在前期对农业收入存在负向抑制作用;农村交通和城市交通都在后期促进非农业收入增加;农业收入对城乡两地区交通发展无明显波动性影响;非农业收入在同一时期对城市和农村的交通发展影响效果恰好相反。
According to the poverty theory of feasible ability, improving the ability to get rid of the poverty situation is the only key to solving the poverty problem.The paper takes the transportation development and rural income ofHohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin urban agglomeration as the object, divides transportation into urban and rural, of which the rural income is divided into agricultural and non-agricultural according to the income source, and analyzes the mutual influence of four variables by establishing a VAR model.The paper tries to explore the impact of transportation on rural income acquisition ability, and also discusses whether changes in the two types of rural income will have an impact on the development of urban and rural transportation. The result shows that: the development of rural transportation promotes the increase of agricultural income in the early stage, while the development of urban transportation has a negative inhibitory effect on agricultural income in the early stage;both rural and urban transportation promote the increase of non-agricultural income in the later stage;agriculture income has no obvious fluctuating impact on urban and rural transportation development;non-agricultural income has opposite effects on urban and rural transportation development during the same period.
作者
于景飞
赵梅梅
张新洁
YU Jingfei;ZHAO Meimei;ZHANG Xinjie(Civil Engineering School,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014010,China)
出处
《交通科技与经济》
2022年第5期74-80,共7页
Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications
基金
内蒙古自治区高等学校科学研究项目(NJZZ21023)。
关键词
交通基础设施
呼包鄂榆城市群
农村收入
VAR模型
脉冲响应分析
transportation infrastructure
Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin urban agglomeration
rural income
VAR model
impulse response analysis
