摘要
美国的东亚盟友有时候会在中美之间采取对冲战略,但不同盟友的对冲战略有所不同,同一盟友在不同时期采取的对冲战略也存在差异。本文将美国的战略信誉作为自变量,将美国盟国对冲强度视作因变量,揭示了战略信誉影响美国东亚盟国对冲战略的规律:美国战略信誉越高,盟国的对冲强度越低;美国战略信誉越低,盟国的对冲强度越高。本文以日本安倍政府、韩国文在寅政府、菲律宾阿基诺三世政府和杜特尔特政府为例,检验了上述假说。
The East Asian allies of the United States sometimes adopt a hedging strategy between China and the United States.Yet,the hedging strategies adopted by different US allies vary,and the hedging strategies adopted by the same ally in different periods also vary.This paper takes strategic credibility of US as the independent variable and the hedging intensity of US allies as the dependent variable,thus identify the law of strategic credibility which affects the hedging strategy of the allies of a superpower:If US has higher strategic credibility,the small state hedges in lower intensity;if US has lower strategic credibility,the small state hedges in higher intensity.This paper tests the above hypothesis by taking the Abe govern⁃ment in Japan,the Moon Jae-in government in South Korea,the AquinoⅢgovernment and the Duterte government in the Philippines as case studies.
作者
石稚瑄
Shi Zhixuan(University of International Relations)
出处
《战略决策研究》
2022年第5期20-46,I0001,共28页
Journal of Strategy and Decision-Making
关键词
美国
东亚
战略信誉
对冲强度
The United States
East Asia,strategic credibility
the hedging intensity
