摘要
在联盟政治研究领域,联盟瓦解这一问题并未得到应有的重视和充分的讨论。尽管国家之间为了应对共同威胁而结成联盟,但是威胁的消失并不意味着联盟的解体。因此,联盟形成与瓦解的机制并不相同,维持联盟的条件消失或改变可能不会直接导致联盟瓦解。作者试图检验联盟瓦解的三项机制:威胁的上升和盟国间的冲突会导致联盟更容易瓦解;体系的不稳定以及联盟背景的剧烈变化会导致联盟的瓦解;当成员国面临的外部压力越大、国内观众成本越高时,联盟越不可能瓦解。这些机制表明,背景条件和维持条件的改变会引发联盟价值的改变,联盟内部成员会在比较联盟价值和抛弃成本的基础上决定是否抛弃联盟。通过改进已有研究中的变量并引入新变量,借助新的联盟数据库,作者应用事件史的分析方法对上述假设进行了实证检验。对联盟瓦解现象的大样本分析表明,抛弃联盟是国家的一项战略选择,机会主义的表象背后反映了国家的理性考量,认识到这一点有助于我们加深对联盟理论以及对周边国家联盟政策的理解。
There has been no due attention paid to and sufficient discussion about alliance collapse in the field of alliance politics.Although states form alliance to counter their common threats,the alliance will not dissolve immediately when the threats no long exist.There exist differences in mechanisms between alliance formation and alliance collapse,for the reason that what contributes to alliance collapse is not simply the factors to maintain alliance.In this article,we raise three mechanisms of alliance collapse:(1) the rise of external threats and previous conflict experience among alliance members may lead to collapse;(2) the more unstable the international system and background conditions are,the more probable collapse occurs;(3) last but not least,higher internal and external costs when superpower as an ally and domestic democratic polity always make alliance more stable.The authors argue that the changing conditions of background and alliance maintenance will lead to changes in alliance value,and the alliance members will make their decisions based on a comparison between alliance value and abrogation cost.Based on an empirical study of the bilateral alliances formed between 1816 and 1989 by using Cox Hazard model,the authors conclude that states treat alliance abrogation as a strategy instead of an opportunistic behavior.
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第10期4-31,156,共28页
World Economics and Politics
基金
笔者主持的2012年教育部青年基金项目"美国海外军事干涉行为与国际秩序演变研究"(项目编号:12YJCGJW007)的阶段性成果
关键词
联盟价值
双边关系
抛弃成本
联盟瓦解
alliance value,bilateral relations,abrogation cost,alliance collapse
