摘要
本文利用2000、2005、2010和2015年中国人口普查(抽样调查)微观数据及1999—2018年的城市层面指标,基于中国加入WTO中美确立永久性正常贸易关系的准自然实验,采用Bartik方法构建城市层面贸易政策不确定性,详细考察了贸易政策不确定性下降对区域劳动力市场技能偏向的影响。研究发现,贸易政策不确定性下降显著提高了劳动力市场高中及以上学历的就业占比,加剧了就业技能偏向,且其长期影响大于短期影响。同时,贸易政策不确定性不仅对制造业部门就业技能偏向的影响存在动态演变特征,还对服务业部门形成一定的正向溢出效应,且出口升级在其中发挥了正向调节作用。进一步分析发现,贸易政策不确定性下降显著促进了劳动力市场的工资增长,且该影响具有长期效应。
Using national census(sample surveys)data for 2000,2005,2010 and 2015 and city-level indicators from 1999 to 2018,based on a quasi-natural experiment in which China and the US established permanent normal trade relations after China’s accession to the WTO,this paper constructs the city-level trade policy uncertainty(TPU)by Bartik method,and examines the effect of TPU decline on the skill bias of regional labor markets.We find that a decline in TPU significantly increases the employment share of senior high school degree or above in the labor market,promotes the employment skill bias,and its long-term impact is greater than the short-term impact.Moreover,the impact of TPU on the employment skill bias in the manufacturing sector exhibits dynamic evolution characteristics,and TPU also has a positive spillover effect on the bias in the service sector.Export upgrading has a positive moderating effect in this process.Further analysis reveals that a decline in TPU significantly contributes to the wage growth in the labor market,and the effect lasts in the long term.
作者
李宏兵
李震
孙丽棠
LI Hongbing;LI Zhen;SUN Litang
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第7期68-86,共19页
Journal of International Trade
基金
北京市社会科学基金一般项目“疫情防控常态化下数字经济驱动北京实体经济复兴研究”(20JJB010)。
