摘要
随着人口红利的消失和资源的紧缺,由传统要素驱动的出口增长机制难以为继。在全球贸易保护主义抬头背景下,加快发展数字贸易,是推动我国区域协调发展、实现外贸高质量发展的必然选择。以2012—2022年省级面板数据为研究样本,从综合评价的角度,采用熵值法从数字基础设施、数字创新能力、数字产业及数字贸易潜力4个方面构建省份数字贸易发展水平的综合指标体系并进行测度,同时通过构建随机前沿引力模型测算各区域出口效率,采用空间杜宾模型从基础设施建设和资源配置两方面分析数字贸易发展对出口效率的影响。研究发现,2012—2022年间,我国区域数字贸易发展水平和出口效率不断提高,但存在明显的区域发展不平衡问题,呈现东高西低的特征,且东部地区数字贸易发展水平和出口效率远高于中、西部地区。数字贸易发展对我国区域出口效率具有空间溢出效应且存在倒U形特征,数字贸易的发展弱化了传统贸易壁垒,既显著促进本地出口效率提升,也促进邻近地区出口效率提升,但随着数字贸易发展引致数字贸易壁垒的出现,又可能成为制约出口效率提升的重要因素。机制分析表明,基础设施建设的完善能够强化数字贸易发展对出口效率提升的作用,且具有显著的空间溢出效应。资源配置的改善能够强化数字贸易发展对本地区出口效率提升的作用,但在不同的空间权重矩阵下呈现出不同的空间溢出效应。区域异质性分析表明,完善基础设施建设对出口效率的促进主要在中、西部地区起作用,资源配置优化效应在东部地区发挥作用。基于此,要完善数字贸易规则,弱化数字贸易壁垒。加强区域协同,推动地区出口效率提升。因地制宜制定发展战略,实现区域外贸高质量发展。
With the disappearance of the demographic dividend and the shortage of resources,the export growth mechanism driven by traditional factors is difficult to sustain.Under the background of rising global trade protectionism,accelerating the development of digital trade is an inevitable choice to promote China's coordinated development among regions and realize the high-quality development of foreign trade.Taking provincial panel data from 2012-2022 as the sample and from the perspective of comprehensive evaluation,the authors adopt entropy value method to construct a comprehensive index system of the level of provincial digital trade development from such four aspects as digital infrastructure,digital innovation ability,digital industry and digital trade potential,and measure it;and at the same time,they measure the provincial export efficiency by constructing a Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model and adopt the Spatial Durbin Model to analyze the impact of digital trade development on export efficiency from the aspects of infrastructure construction and resource allocation.It is found that,between 2012 and 2022,the level of China’s regional digital trade development and export efficiency has been improved,but there is an obvious regional development imbalance,showing the characteristics of high in the east and low in the west,and the level of digital trade development and export efficiency in the eastern region is much higher than that in the central and western regions.The impact of development of digital trade on China's regional export efficiency has a spatial spillover effect and the existence of inverted Ushaped characteristics,which means that the development of digital trade weakens traditional trade barriers,and the development of digital trade can significantly promote both the local export efficiency and the export efficiency of neighboring regions;but the resulting digital barriers to trade is likely to become an important constraint on the enhancement of export efficiency.Mechanism analysis shows that th
作者
王世进
徐佳琦
司增绰
WANG Shi-jin;XU Jia-qi;SI Zeng-chuo(School of Business,Jiangsu Normal University,Xuzhou 221116,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《中国流通经济》
北大核心
2024年第8期100-114,共15页
China Business and Market
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国区域减污降碳的协同机制与实现路径研究”(23AGL029)
2022年江苏省“青蓝工程”中青年学术带头人项目
2023年徐州市政策引导类计划(软科学研究)项目“淮海经济区碳达峰的协同机制与实现路径研究”(KC23097)。
关键词
数字贸易发展
区域出口效率
空间杜宾模型
随机前沿引力模型
digital trade development
regional export efficiency
Spatial Durbin Model
Stochastic Frontier Gravity Mode
