摘要
为科学定量化评估堤防工程的失事风险,基于层次分析法的核心思想,推演出堤防工程安全指数,建立了基于安全指数的堤防工程安全评价模型。具体思路如下:根据历史险情提取归纳堤防工程安全因子,采用专家主观赋权对比矩阵对其进行权重计算,分析各项安全因子对堤防工程安全影响的判别标准,确定安全因子的致险特征值,将安全因子的权重与致险特征值进行融合推演得到安全指数,利用实际工程险情反演安全指数范围值,建立堤防工程安全评价模型。将构建的新模型在长江中下游堤防工程的安全评价中进行验证,结果表明该模型准确性与操作性较好。
With the purpose of a scientific quantitative assessment for the failure risk of embankment engineering,based on the core idea of Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),the safety index of embankment engineering is deduced,and a safety evaluation model of embankment engineering based on safety index is established.Specific ideas are as follows:Firstly,extracting and inducing levee engineering safety factor according to the historical danger,calculating weight by comparison matrix based on the expert subjective values,analyzing the influence of the safety factor of embankment engineering safety criteria,determining the risk eigenvalues of safety factor,and deducing the safety index with the weights of safety factor and the risk eigenvalues;finally,establishing the safety evaluation model of embankment engineering by using the actual engineering risk situation to invert the range value of safety index.The new model has been validated in the safety evaluation of embankment projects in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The results showed that the model has good accuracy and operability,and can be used in the safety evaluation of other embankment projects.
作者
赵鑫
胡坤生
李理
ZHAO Xin;HU Kunsheng;LI Li(Changjiang Institute of Survey,Planning,Design and Research,Wuhan 430010,China;Changjiang Geotechnical Engineer ing Corporation,Wuhan 430010,China)
出处
《水利水电快报》
2022年第8期91-95,共5页
Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502601)。
