摘要
目的基于广义相加模型定量分析某地级市大气污染物PM_(2.5)与居民呼吸系统疾病及恶性肿瘤死亡风险的相关性。方法收集2016~2018年该地级市逐日PM_(2.5)浓度数据、气象数据、居民呼吸系统疾病及恶性肿瘤死亡数据,进行描述性统计分析;采用基于Quasi-Poisson回归的广义相加模型(GAM),分析PM_(2.5)与该市居民呼吸系统疾病和恶性肿瘤死亡风险间的相关关系。结果2016~2018年该地级市大气PM_(2.5)日均值为49μg/m3,共有631 d超出《环境空气质量标准》GB3095-2012污染物浓度一级限值标准,占三年总天数的57.6%;广义相加模型滞后效应(Lag0~Lag7)显示,PM_(2.5)浓度升高10μg/m3,呼吸系统疾病死亡率在滞后5 d的影响最大(ER=0.699%(95%CI:0.121%~1.277%)),恶性肿瘤死亡率在滞后3 d时的影响最大(ER=0.443%(95%CI:0.013%~0.873%));寒季(11月~4月)期间,PM_(2.5)浓度升高10μg/m3,呼吸系统疾病死亡率在滞后6 d的影响最大(ER=0.952%(95%CI:0.269%~1.635%)),恶性肿瘤死亡率在滞后1 d时的影响最大(ER=0.819%(95%CI:0.177%~1.461%))。结论该地级市PM_(2.5)浓度升高会引起呼吸系统疾病和恶性肿瘤死亡率增加,特别是在寒季,PM_(2.5)暴露对呼吸系统疾病的负性效应更显著。
Objective:Based on the generalized additive model,to quantitatively analyze the correlation between the air pollutant PM_(2.5) in a prefecture-level city and the death risk of residents’respiratory diseases and malignant tumors.Methods:The daily PM_(2.5) concentration data,meteorological data,residents’respiratory diseases and malignant tumor death data in the prefecture-level city from 2016 to 2018 were collected,and descriptively statistical analyzed;by using the generalized additive model based on Quasi-Poisson regression(GAM),the correlation between PM_(2.5) and the risk of death from respiratory diseases and malignant tumors of residents in the city was analyzed.Results:From 2016 to 2018,the daily average value of atmospheric PM_(2.5) in this prefecture-level city was 49μg/m3,which exceeded the first-level limit of pollutant concentration in“Ambient Air Quality Standard”GB3095-2012 for 631 days,accounting for 57.6%to the total number of days;the lag effect of the generalized additive model(Lag0~Lag7)showed that the concentration of PM_(2.5) increased by 10μg/m3,and the mortality of respiratory diseases had the greatest impact after a lag of 5 days(ER=0.699%(95%CI:0.121%)~1.277%),the mortality of malignant tumors had the greatest impact after a lag of 3 days(ER=0.443%(95%CI:0.013%~0.873%));during the cold season(November-April),PM_(2.5) concentration increased by 10μg/m3,the mortality of respiratory diseases had the greatest impact after a lag of 6 days(ER=0.952%(95%CI:0.269%~1.635%)),and the mortality of malignant tumors had the greatest impact after a lag of 1 day(ER=0.819%(95%CI:0.177%~1.461%)).Conclusion:The increase of PM_(2.5) concentration in this prefecture-level city will increase the mortality of respiratory diseases and malignant tumors.Especially in the cold season,the negative effect of PM_(2.5) exposure on respiratory diseases is more significant.
作者
袁建辉
李梦军
付径维
陈建平
任清泉
肖纯凌
YUAN Jian-hui;LI Meng-jun;FU Jing-wei;CHEN Jian-ping;REN Qing-quan;XIAO Chun-ling(School of Medicine,Jinggangshan University,Ji'an,Jiangxi 343000,China;Academic Affairs Office,Jinggangshan University,Ji'an,Jiangxi 343000,China;Shenyang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shenyang,Liaoning 110034,China;Key Laboratory of Microecology,Shenyang,Liaoning 110034,China)
出处
《井冈山大学学报（自然科学版）》
2022年第5期86-92,共7页
Journal of Jinggangshan University (Natural Science)
基金
辽宁省科学技术厅计划项目(2017225076)
沈阳市科技局“重大科技研发项目”(18-400409)。
