摘要
面对非洲猪瘟和新冠疫情的双重影响,为了给稳定生猪生产、保障市场供应提供参考,研究通过梳理我国生猪产业发展历程和政策背景,并根据2017—2020年我国生猪产业相关数据研判了我国当前生猪产业形势和未来趋势,分析了当前存在的主要问题。结果表明:我国生猪产业发展历经“大发展,小震荡”,整体发展较为迅速,非洲猪瘟疫情以后,在政府和市场的双重调节之下,我国生猪产能恢复势头良好,猪肉供应明显改善,市场行情持续较好;未来,我国猪肉的市场供应短期内将逐步增加,价格回归至合理水平,几年内或将迎来新的猪价时期;但仍面临疫病潜在风险较大、地方发展动力不足、养殖成本居高不下、生产效率进一步降低的问题。鉴于此,笔者提出了毫不松懈做好疫情防控、督促地方政府加大扶持力度和推进企业发展转型升级的对策建议。
In order to provide reference for the stabilization of pig production and to ensure market supply in the face of the dual impacts of African swine fever(ASF) and COVID-19. In this study, the development history and policy background of China’s pig industry were sorted out, and the current situation and future trend of China’s pig industry were analyzed based on the relevant data of China’s pig industry from 2017 to 2020, and the main existing problems were analyzed. These results showed that the development of China’s pig industry experienced “big development, small shock” and the overall development was relatively rapid. After the outbreak of ASF, under the dual regulation of the government and the market, China’s pig production capacity recovered well with significantly improved pork supply, and the market continued to enjoy a good performance. In the future, the market supply of pork in China will gradually increase in the short term, and the price will return to a reasonable level. In a few years, a new pig price period might appear. However, the potential risk of epidemic disease is still large, the local development power is insufficient, the breeding cost is high, and the production efficiency is further reduced. In view of this, countermeasures and suggestions were put forward to do epidemic prevention and control without slacking off, urge local governments to increase support and promote the transformation and upgrading of enterprise development.
作者
孙志华
田双喜
刘浩
张丹辉
SUN Zhihua;TIAN Shuangxi;LIU Hao;ZHANG Danhui(National Animal Husbandry Service,Beijing 100125,China;Institute of Agricultural Information,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Central University for Nationalities,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《黑龙江畜牧兽医》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第14期22-26,134,135,共7页
Heilongjiang Animal Science And veterinary Medicine
基金
全国畜牧总站青年政策研究基金项目。
关键词
后疫情时代
非洲猪瘟
生猪产业
猪肉价格
政策
post-epidemic era
African swine fever
pig industry
pork prices
policy
