摘要
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)ensemble prediction skills of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC)climate prediction system version 2(BCC-CPS2)are examined for the period from 1991 to 2018.The upper-limit ENSO predictability of this system is quantified by measuring its“potential”predictability using information-based metrics,whereas the actual prediction skill is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic skill measures.Results show that:(1)In general,the current operational BCC model achieves an effective 10-month lead predictability for ENSO.Moreover,prediction skills are up to 10–11 months for the warm and cold ENSO phases,while the normal phase has a prediction skill of just 6 months.(2)Similar to previous results of the intermediate coupled models,the relative entropy(RE)with a dominating ENSO signal component can more effectively quantify correlation-based prediction skills compared to the predictive information(PI)and the predictive power(PP).(3)An evaluation of the signal-dependent feature of the prediction skill scores suggests the relationship between the“Spring predictability barrier(SPB)”of ENSO prediction and the weak ENSO signal phase during boreal spring and early summer.
基金
The National Key Research and Development Program under contract No.2017YFA0604200
the National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction under contract No.GASI-IPOVAI-06
the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41530961.
