摘要
文章以政府债务对银行贷款的挤占率作为门槛变量,运用2000—2019年我国31个省份的相关数据进行了检验,结果发现:当挤占率低于25.8%时,新增政府债务呈现财富效应和收入效应,可以拉动居民消费并促进经济循环;当挤占率超过25.8%时,政府债务表现为税收效应、挤出效应和房奴效应,会对居民消费产生抑制作用并阻碍经济循环。因此,各级地方政府要维持政府债务规模与当地金融市场发展水平之间的平衡,才能保证地方财政政策的可持续性和安全性。
This paper introduces the rate of government debt crowding on bank loans as a threshold variable,and tests the da-ta of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2019.The results show that when the crowding out rate is lower than 25.8%,the new gov-ernment debt presents wealth effect and income effect,which can stimulate residents’consumption and promote economic cycle,and that when the crowding out rate exceeds 25.8%,the government debt shows tax effect,crowding out effect and housing slave effect,which will inhibit residents’consumption and hinder economic cycle.Therefore,local governments at all levels must main-tain a balance between the scale of government debt and the development level of the local financial market,so as to ensure the sustainability and security of local fiscal policies.
作者
金虎斌
Jin Hubin(School of Economics,Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《统计与决策》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第14期123-128,共6页
Statistics & Decision
基金
河南省科技攻关项目(212102310058)
河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2021BJJ100)。
关键词
地方政府债务
经济循环
居民消费
金融发展
local government debt
economic cycle
residents’consumption
financial development
