摘要
2020年中国向世界承诺了二氧化碳排放力争于2030年前达到峰值,争取在2060年前实现碳中和的目标。碳达峰与碳中和目标的提出对中国各行业的未来发展转型提出了深刻要求,而工业领域是中国碳排放的主要来源之一,也是应对气候变化最为重要的领域之一,是中国兑现碳达峰与碳中和承诺的关键。文章对中国工业实现碳达峰与碳中和的路径进行研究。构建了全国工业及重点工业行业二氧化碳排放清单,解析工业二氧化碳排放历史特征与发展现状。将宏观经济年度模型耦合工业重点行业技术路径模块与碳排放模块,构建了中国工业经济—碳排放评估模型(CIE‑CEAM),对不同情景下工业二氧化碳排放的发展趋势进行研判。研究结果表明,中国工业有望在“十四五”期间夯实2030年前碳达峰的良好基础,在“十五五”期间实现达峰。达峰后,工业二氧化碳排放总量将在不同情景中以年均3%~5%速度下降。2030—2060年期间需着力于低碳生产技术创新引领的工业行业深度减排,从而实现工业碳中和。以钢铁、建材、石化化工、有色金属为代表的重点工业行业是实现工业碳减排的主要领域,实现工业碳达峰与碳中和应考虑行业的异质性,以低碳原料、工业电气化、氢能冶金、CCUS等为代表的低碳、零碳、负碳技术将成为中国工业实现碳达峰与碳中和的重要推动力。
China has made a commitment that it would achieve the goals of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.The‘dual carbon’goals require a deep transformation in the future development pathway of the economy.China’s industrial sectors are the major contributors to carbon emissions as well as a key area to address climate change and achieve the‘dual carbon’goals.This article focuses on the future development pathway for China’s industrial sectors to achieve the‘dual carbon’goals.The car‑bon emission inventory is constructed to analyze the historical characteristics and current status of China’s industrial carbon emissions.The China Industry Economy-Carbon Emission Assessment Model(CIE-CEAM),which combines a macroeconomic model with an in‑dustrial technology pathway model,is used to study the carbon emission trend of China’s industrial sectors under different development scenarios.The result shows that China’s industrial sectors would lay a good foundation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and achieve the emission peak goal during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.After reaching the peak,industrial carbon emissions would de‑cline at an annual rate of 2%−3%from 2030 to 2050 in different scenarios.From 2050 to 2060,more efforts should be made to apply in‑novative net-zero emission technology to the hard-to-abate industries to achieve the carbon neutrality goal.The key industrial sectors represented by iron and steel,cement,petrochemicals&chemicals,and non-ferrous metals sectors would be the most important areas to achieve deep carbon emission reduction.The heterogeneity among these industries should be taken into consideration when making the emission reduction plan.Low-,zero-,and negative-carbon technologies represented by low-carbon raw materials,electrification,hydro‑gen metallurgy,and CCUS would become an important driving force for China’s industry to contribute to the‘dual carbon’goals.
作者
禹湘
娄峰
谭畅
YU Xiang;LOU Feng;TAN Chang(University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100710,China;Institute for Ecological Civilization Studies,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100028,China;Institute of Quantitative&Technical Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China;Department of Earth System Science,Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling,Institute for Global Change Studies,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第7期49-56,共8页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金专项项目“面向碳中和的中国经济转型模式构建研究”(批准号:7214001)
中国社会科学院重大研究项目“新发展理念下‘双碳’目标与中国绿色转型研究”。
关键词
工业
碳达峰
碳中和
industry
carbon peak
carbon neutrality
