摘要
为定量分析武汉市2001-2019年水资源承载力变化情况,减少评价过程中的不确定性,从水资源、社会、经济、生态环境四个层面建立评价指标体系,利用博弈论确定指标综合权重,并引入云模型来解决降低评价的不确定性。结果表明:(1)研究期内,武汉市水资源承载力整体处于临界及以上承载等级,水资源能够满足社会经济发展需要;(2)武汉市水资源承载力等级呈现上升趋势,社会、经济和生态各项指标呈现良好发展态势;(3)在“十四五”期间,为解决区域性、季节性缺水以及降水偏枯年份水资源过度开发问题,需充分利用降水和过境客水,建立储水以及区域水资源调配系统。
In order to analyze quantitatively the change of water resource carrying capacity in Wuhan City from 2001 to 2019,an evaluation index system was established from four aspects,i.e.water resource,society,economy and ecological environment,a comprehensive weight of indicators was determined by game theory,and cloud model was adopted to reduce the uncertainty of the evaluation.The results show that:(1)During the study period,the overall carrying capacity of water resource in Wuhan is at a critical level or above,which means the resource can meet the needs of the city’s social and economic development;(2)The level of water resource carrying capacity in Wuhan presents an upward trend,and its social,economic and ecological indicators show a good development trend;(3)During the 14th Five-year Plan period,it is necessary to establish water storage and regional water resource allocation system by making full use of precipitation and transit passenger water so as to solve the problems of regional and seasonal water shortage and over-exploitation of water resource in the years of precipitation drought.
作者
肖静
袁江棋
罗响
李倩
XIAO Jing;YUAN Jiang-qi;LUO Xiang;LI Qian(Undergraduate School,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,Hubei,China;Schoolof International Education,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,Hubei,China;Schoolof Resources and Environmental Engineering,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,Hubei,China)
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（社会科学版）》
2022年第3期86-93,共8页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology:Social Sciences Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52079101,42001018)
国家创新创业训练项目(宏翼无人机监测与预警平台--引领无人机监测新生态)。
关键词
武汉市
博弈论
云模型
水资源承载力
Wuhan City
game theory
cloud model
water resource carrying capacity
