摘要
近年来中国制造业产业逐渐由东部地区向中西部地区转移,同时农民工也由“孔雀东南飞”向“凤凰还巢”转变。本文基于2010年、2011年、2012年和2017年中国流动人口动态监测数据,采用m-Logit模型与Logit模型、工具变量法与控制函数法,实证检验了就业机会与收支剩余对农民工回流的影响。研究表明:第一,制造业发生产业区域转移后,由于中西部地区就业机会增加与收支剩余提高,农民工流动距离缩短,跨省流动减少,其中,中部地区农民工省内跨市和市内跨县流动增加,西部地区农民工省内跨市流动增加。第二,获得就业机会是人口流动的基础保障,与收支剩余相比较而言,产业区域转移后中西部地区就业机会增加是引致农民工回流的主导因素。第三,农民工回流存在行业异质性,食品加工业和纺织服装业是中部地区农民工回流的主要行业,木材家具业、化学制品业、专用设备制造业、电器机械制造业和计算机通信电子设备制造业是西部地区农民工回流的主要行业。对此,应大力推进劳动密集型制造业有条不紊地向中西部地区转移,为农民工在家门口就业提供充足的就业机会,以实现农民工收入与幸福感的“双提升”。
In recent years, China’s manufacturing industry has gradually shifted from the eastern region to the central and western regions. At the same time, rural migrant workers have also changed their spatial mobility from “Peacock Flying Southeast” to “Phoenix returning to the nest” in China. Based on China Migrants Dynamic Survey data in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2017, this article empirically tests the impact of employment opportunities and income and expenditure surplus on the return of rural migrant workers by using m-Logit model, Logit model, instrumental variable method and control function method. The study finds that, first, after the trans-regional transfer of manufacturing industry, the mobility distance of rural migrant workers is shortened and the inter-provincial mobility is reduced due to the increase of employment opportunities and the increase of income and expenditure surplus in the central and western regions. While the inter-city flow in the same province and the inter-county flow in the same city of rural migrant workers increased in the central region, the inter-city flow in the same province of rural migrant workers increased in the western region. Second, the access to employment opportunities is the basic guarantee of labor mobility. Compared with the surplus of income and expenditure, the increase of employment opportunities in the central and western regions after the trans-regional transfer of manufacturing industry is the leading factor causing the return of rural migrant workers. Thirdly, there exists industry heterogeneity in the return of rural migrant workers. The food processing industry as well as textile and clothing industries are the main industries for the return of rural migrant workers in the central region. The wood furniture industry, chemical products industry, special equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery manufacturing, computer, communication and electronic equipment manufacturing industries are the main industries for the return of rural migrant workers in the
作者
张欢
吴方卫
ZHANG Huan;WU Fangwei
出处
《中国农村经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第6期107-128,共22页
Chinese Rural Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“劳动禀赋时空异质性变化下我国种植业结构调整问题研究”(编号:71873082)
上海财经大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“产业转型、要素相对价格与农民工流动”(编号:QCDC-2020-07)的资助。
关键词
产业区域转移
农民工回流
就业机会
收支剩余
Industrial Regional Transfer
Return of Rural Migrant Worker
Employment Opportunity
Surplus of Income and Expenditure
