摘要
为促进合理用水,缓解江苏省水资源短缺现象,选取2000—2020年省内三大产业用水数据,利用LMDI模型和VAR模型,从动静结合视角分解量化江苏省生产用水演变驱动因素及长期互动关系。结果表明:经济效应是促进江苏省生产用水量增长的首要因素,但水资源消耗对经济增长的促进作用相对较弱;生产强度效应与产业结构效应分别为影响江苏省生产用水量增长的主要及次要抑制因素,短期内生产强度效应能够有效抑制生产用水量增长,但长期来看存在“反弹现象”。有效控制江苏省生产用水量增加,需弱化经济增长与水资源大量消耗之间的强相关关系,持续推进省内产业结构向“三二一”模式转变,培养全社会节水意识,推动生产及节水技术革新,提高用水效率。
In order to promote rational water use and alleviate water shortage in Jiangsu Province,this paper selects water consumption data of three major industries in Jiangsu province from 2000 to 2020,and uses LMDI model and VAR model to analyze the driving factors and long-term interaction relationship of the evolution of production water consumption in Jiangsu province from the perspective of dynamic and static combination.The results show that economic effect is the primary factor in promoting the increase of production water consumption in Jiangsu province,but the effect of water consumption on economic growth is relatively weak.Production intensity effect and industrial structure effect are respectively the primary and secondary inhibitory factors affecting the changes in production water consumption in Jiangsu province.In the short term,the production intensity effect can effectively restrain the growth of production water consumption,but in the long term,there is a rebound phenomenon.To effectively control the increase of production water consumption in Jiangsu province,it is necessary to weaken the strong correlation between economic growth and massive consumption of water resources,continuously promote the transformation of industrial structure in Jiangsu province to the“three-two-one”mode,cultivate the whole society s water-saving consciousness,and promote the innovation of production and water-saving technology to improve water efficiency.
作者
吕苏榆
蒋娜
张陈俊
LYU Suyu;JIANG Na;ZHANG Chenjun(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;School of Economics and Management,Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,Zhenjiang 212100,China)
出处
《水利经济》
2022年第4期41-47,54,93,共9页
Journal of Economics of Water Resources
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(17YJC790194)。
关键词
生产用水量
驱动因素
互动关系
LMDI模型
VAR模型
水资源
生产用水演变
production water consumption
driving factors
interactive relationship
LMDI model
VAR model
water resource
productive water consumption evolution
