摘要
分析流域尺度极端气温事件时空变化特征及其原因,是区域气象灾害预警与风险防控的科学基础。中国疆域辽阔、气候复杂多变,加之地形与地理位置差异、各地极端气温变化表现不一,极端气候呈现出区域差异性的时空变化特征。珠江流域作为我国经济发展的重要增长区,是气候变化和生态环境的敏感区,极端高温事件频发,造成严重的经济损失。珠江流域极端气温时空变化方面的研究,过去并没有考虑地理因子对极端气温变化特征的影响。本文基于1960—2018年珠江流域内57个气象站点逐日平均、最高和最低气温资料,采用12个极端气温指数分析极端气温时空变化特征,预测其未来变化趋势。研究表明:(1)1960—2018年珠江流域极端气温暖指数呈增加趋势,而极端气温冷指数减少,并且极端低温变化趋势大于极端高温变化趋势,致使气温日较差下降。极端气温夜晚变化趋势较白天更为剧烈。(2)基于Hurst指数分析,所有极端气温指数Hurst指数值都大于0.5,表明未来珠江流域极端气温指数仍将保持目前的趋势方向。(3)珠江流域极端气温指数的变化具有明显的空间差异性,东南部低海拔区增温更为剧烈。(4)极端气温冷指数受涛动指数的影响较大,而极端气温暖指数受夏季风指数影响较大。本研究量化区域极端气温时空变化特征,可为流域极端气温预警决策提供科学指导。
A clear understanding of the spatio-temporal variability in extreme temperature events at watershed scale and their mechanism can build a scientific foundation for regional meteorological disaster warning and risk prevention and control.China has a vast territory and a complex and variable climate.The regional differences of the Pearl River basin in topographies,geographical locations,along with the large discrepancy in the formation of extreme temperature occurrences,all of them created a pattern of extreme climate characterized by district spatio-temporal.Being an area with high economic growth rate in China,the Pearl River basin is sensitive to climate change and ecological environment.The basin frequently experiences extreme heat events,resulting in significant economic losses.The impacts of geographic factors on the characteristics of extreme temperature changes were not taken into account on the spatiotemporal variability of extreme temperatures in the Pearl River basin.In this study,based on the daily mean,maximum,and minimum temperature data for 1960 to 2018 from 57 meteorological stations within the Pearl River basin,12 extreme temperature indices were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of extreme temperatures and forecast their future trends.The study found the following results:(1)From 1960 to 2018,the extreme temperature warm indices in the Pearl River basin displayed an increasing trend,while the extreme temperature cold indices showed a decreasing trend.In addition,the extreme low temperature variation trend was larger than the extreme high temperature variation trend,resulting in a decrease in daily temperature difference.The extreme temperature change trend was more dramatic at night than one in the daytime.(2)The Hurst exponent values of all extreme temperature indices were greater than 0.5,indicating that the extreme climate indices in the Pearl River basin will maintain their current trend directions in the future.(3)The changes of extreme temperature indices in the Pe
作者
徐飞
张汶海
赵玲玲
王钧
宫清华
XU Fei;ZHANG Wenhai;ZHAO Lingling;WANG Jun;GONG Qinghua(Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510070, China;Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System, Guangzhou 510070, China;Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou 510070, China;Lancang-Mekong River Resources Cooperation Center, Beijing 100038, China)
出处
《山地学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第3期343-354,共12页
Mountain Research
基金
广东省科学院发展专项资金项目(2020GDASYL-20200301003,2020GDASYL-20200401001)
国家公园建设项目(2021GJGY029)。
关键词
极端气温
暖指数
冷指数
变化趋势
珠江流域
extreme temperature
warm indices
cold indices
variation tendency
the Pearl River basin
