摘要
“三孩”生育政策及其配套支持措施是党中央在前期生育政策调整效果不彰的背景下所提出来的战略决策。然而,从国际经验以及国内研判来看,鼓励生育政策对于未来中国生育率回升的预期效果可能十分有限,这与其中两类政策偏差密切相关。一是群体瞄准偏差,即对低生育率的认知偏误会使生育配套支持措施过度锚定在“不敢生”群体,却忽略“不想生”“不能生”与“不让生”群体,致使刺激生育率的效果不佳;二是在世界范围内出现了生育责任的定位偏差,即形成一种认知偏误,认为低生育率主要是国家责任未尽全或未尽好所致,个人与家庭因此有“充分理由”豁免生育责任,结果是政府在承担越来越多生育成本的同时,不仅加重财政和纳税人负担,而且刺激生育率回升的政策目标远未能实现。针对这两种政策偏差,未来我国在鼓励生育政策中首先应明确国家、社会、市场、家庭与个人在生育、养育与教育上的责任定位;其次要营造有利于生育率回升的文化观念,采取适度配套支持措施,启用温和间接惩罚措施;再次应尽快明确中国未来人口发展的战略目标。
The three-child policy and its supporting measures are a major strategic decision put forward by the Party Central Committee under the background of the ineffective adjustment of the early birth policies.However,from international experience and domestic research and judgment,the expected effect of encouraging birth policy on China′s low-fertility may be very limited,which is closely related to two types of policy errors.The first is the targeting error that the cognitive bias of the low fertility rate makes the supporting measures over anchored in the group that″dare not give birth″,but ignores the groups that″do not want to give birth″,″cannot give birth″and″are not allowed to give birth″,resulting in the poor effect of stimulating the fertility rate.Secondly,there has been an error of the positioning of birth responsibility around the world,that is,a cognitive bias,which holds that the low fertility rate is mainly caused by the incomplete or poor state responsibility.Therefore,individuals and families have″sufficient reasons″to exempt themselves from birth responsibility.As a result,the government has borne more and more reproductive costs,which not only increases the financial and tax burden,but also makes the policy goal of stimulating the fertility far from effective.In view of these two policy errors,in the future,we should first clarify the responsibility of the state,society,market,family and individual in childbirth,parenting and education.Then we need to create a cultural concept conducive to the recovery of fertility,take appropriate supporting measures,and use mild and indirect punishment measures.Finally,we are supposed to clarify the strategic objectives of China′s future population development as soon as possible.
作者
陈友华
孙永健
CHEN Youhua;SUN Yongjian(School of Social and Behavioral Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210023,China)
出处
《广州大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2022年第4期73-90,共18页
Journal of Guangzhou University:Social Science Edition
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(17ZDA120)。
