摘要
目的研究环形交叉口的事故发生情况及严重程度的影响因素,为提高环形交叉口安全、减少事故损伤提供依据。方法采用来自美国国家公路交通安全管理局的2016—2019年期间美国多个环形交叉口的事故数据,通过NLOGIT 5软件进行固定参数和随机参数有序logistic回归分析。结果环形交叉口事故总数达到355起,其中,造成严重伤害的事故有20起,造成轻伤的事故108起,没有造成人员明显伤害的事故数为227起,占比分别为5.64%、30.42%、63.94%。对环形交叉口事故严重程度具有显著影响的因素中,起到保护作用的因素有追尾碰撞(β=-1.68,t=-4.61,P<0.01)、同方向侧碰(β=-2.91,t=-6.22,P<0.01)、多云天气(β=-0.88,t=-1.76,P<0.05)、受伤者类型(β=-0.66,t=-2.39,P<0.1)、与速度相关(β=-1.22,s=1.84,t=-2.18,P<0.01)和角度碰撞(β=-2.26,s=1.98,t=-5.58,P<0.01),存在加重危险作用的因素有位于交汇区(β=1.05,t=1.86,P<0.1)、饮酒(β=2.43,s=2.47,t=4.00,P<0.1)以及事故参与者的年龄(β=0.03,t=4.25,P<0.01),速度相关、饮酒和角度碰撞3个变量具有随机参数。结论环形交叉口处的事故伤害严重程度受到事故本身、参与人员、环境条件等多方面因素影响,要重点从位于交汇区、饮酒和高龄驾驶员入手,来制定降低环形交叉口事故伤害的措施。
Objective To study factors influencing the occurrence and severity of roundabout accidents and to provide a basis for improving safety at roundabouts.Methods Accident data of multiple use roundabout from 2016 to 2019 from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration were collected and NLOGIT 5 software was used to conduct statistical analysis of ordered logistic regression with fixed parameters and ordered logistic regression with random parameters.Results The total number of roundabout accidents reached 355.Among them,20 cases involved serious injuries,108 involved minor injuries and 227 did not cause obvious injuries,accounting for 5.64%,30.42%,63.94%respectively.Among factors that had significant impacts on the severity of roundabout accidents were protective factors in rear-end collision(β=-1.68,t=-4.61,P<0.01),side collision in the same direction(β=-2.91,t=-6.22,P<0.01),cloudy weather(β=-0.88,t=-1.76,P<0.05),whether the driver was a driver(β=-0.66,t=-2.39,P<0.1),velocity related(β=-1.22,s=1.84,t=-2.18,P<0.01)and Angle collision(β=-2.26,s=1.98,t=-5.58,P<0.01).The risk aggravating factors were:located in intersection areas(β=1.05,t=1.86,P<0.1),drinking(β=2.43,t=4.00,P<0.1)and age of accident participants(β=0.03,t=4.25,P<0.01).Three variables(speed correlation,drinking and Angle collision)showed random parameters.Conclusions The severity of accident injuries at roundabouts were affected by the accidents itself,accident personnel,environmental conditions,and other factors.Our data indicates that it is necessary to specify the measures to mitigate accident injuries at roundabouts from intersection areas,drinking,and elderly drivers.
作者
葛畅
李烨
陈庆宏
GE Chang;LI Ye;CHEN Qing-hong(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China)
出处
《伤害医学（电子版）》
2022年第2期20-27,共8页
Injury Medicine(Electronic Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(71901223)。
