摘要
目前国内外对天然气产量风险量化研究尚处于起步阶段,主要原因是敏感因素的选取和量化评价存在着不确定性。为了充分认识天然气规划产量目标风险主控因素,为规划产量目标优化提供理论依据,以中国石油西南油气田为例,建立了规划产量目标风险量化评价模型及流程,实现了对规划产量目标风险的综合评价。研究结果表明:①采用蒙特卡洛方法建立产量的量化函数,是定量化评价天然气产量风险的核心技术;②引入蒙特卡洛随机模拟方法,结合产量构成原理,按照气田主要开发阶段,分探明已开发气田、探明未开发气田和待探明储量气田三类生产主体建立产量概率模拟模型,可以有效模拟理论上可能发生的任意参数组合,突破以往预测结果为一个数值的局限;③实例应用效果表明,该风险量化评价模型能够科学评价产量目标风险大小,可为辨识和降低战略规划风险、制定规避措施提供科学依据,有力支撑了中长期规划方案优化。
At present,domestic and foreign studies on the risk quantification of natural-gas production are still in the beginning stage because of uncertainty in choosing and quantitative evaluating some sensitivity factors.In order to sufficiently understand the risk control factors of planning production target and provide theoretical basis for the target optimization,a model of quantitative risk evaluation on the planning gas production target and its process were established.Results show that(1)the production quantification function established by means of Monte Carlo method is the core technology to evaluate the risk of gas production quantitatively;(2)based on the main field development stages,combined with the principle of yield component,another model of production probability simulation may be established for three kinds of production subjects(PD gasfield,PUD gasfield,and to be proved gasfield)by means of MC stochastic simulation method.It can effective simulate any parameter combination that is theoretically possible and break through the restriction that the previous prediction result is one numerical value;and(3)the case application results show that this risk evaluation model can quantitatively evaluate the risk of production target and provide scientific basis for identifying and reduce the risk in strate⁃gic planning and the formulation of avoidance measures,so as to support the optimization of middle-and longterm planning schemes.
作者
余果
陈艳茹
李海涛
罗莉
YU Guo;CHEN Yanru;LI Haitao;LUO Li(PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China;Exploration and Development Research Insti-tute,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,China)
出处
《天然气技术与经济》
2022年第3期51-58,共8页
Natural Gas Technology and Economy
基金
四川省科技计划项目“中国西南气大庆战略研究”(编号:2021JDR0401)
中国石油西南油气田公司科学研究与技术项目“西南油气田天然气战略规划产量目标风险量化评价方法研究”(编号:20200310-06)。
