摘要
油气勘探项目的风险决策是一个系统、复杂的过程。传统决策方法很少考虑决策者的风险承受能力与风险偏好,从而导致决策结果与客观实际不相符合。基于此,以Suslick提出的MAUT决策框架为基础,从风险-收益的角度,凝练出"地质风险"、"市场风险"和"经济收益"3大属性。通过效用函数,将决策者对待风险的态度、经验及判断能力等主观因素与勘探项目的客观损益有机结合;并综合专家赋权法和随机赋权法的优点,对属性实施动态赋权,构建了基于动态MAUT的油气勘探风险决策模型。该方法不仅充分考虑了决策者的风险偏好,且能够反映决策结果的稳定性,有利于决策者以动态、全面的眼光进行风险决策分析,从而使得决策更加科学、合理。实例应用表明,该模型决策结果符合客观实际,且操作简便,对同类研究具有借鉴作用。
The risk decision making of oil gas exploration projects is a complex decision-process.The traditional methods hardly consider the risk propensity of different decision-makers,which lead the results do not fit the real situation.Based on the framework of MAUT that put forward by Suslick,this paper proposed a dynamic MAUT decision model for oil gas exploration projects.Firstly,from the angle of ＇risk-profit＇,the ＇geology risk＇,＇market risk＇ and ＇economic benefits＇were selected as the main attributes of this model.Then through the utility function,this model combined the subjective factors,such as decision-makers＇ attitudes to risk and experience with the profit and loss of exploration projects.And finally,integrated the advantages of experts weighting and random weighting,this model evaluated the weights of attibuted dynamically.So this method not only can take into account the risk preferences of decision-makers,but also can and reflect the stability of the decision-making results,which made decision-makers able to analyze with comprehensiveness and dynamic.So the decision has been made more scientifically and reasonable.The application indicated that the method was scientific and feasible;it was also useful for reference to the congener research.
出处
《中国矿业》
北大核心
2010年第1期110-113,共4页
China Mining Magazine
基金
四川省学术和技术带头人培养基金(川人办发[2008]24号)重点资助项目
四川省教育厅重点资助项目(2008ZB026)
关键词
油气勘探
多属性效用理论(MAUT)
动态赋权
风险决策
oil ＆ gas exploration
Multi-Attribute Utility Theory（MAUT）
dynamic weight evaluation
risk decision-making
