摘要
以“一带一路”沿线亚洲、非洲和欧洲的112个国家作为研究对象,通过文献分析及偏最小二乘法结构方程模型(PLS-SEM)分析,从世界银行公开数据库中筛选出15项从统计意义上具有代表性的数据指标,组成含“经济机会”“社会福祉”“环境质量”和“气候行动”4个指标维度的可持续发展综合评价体系,并通过熵权法、秩和比法进行综合评价,建立“一带一路”可持续发展综合评价模型。评估结果表明,欧盟得分为0.819,在各地区中排名第一;南非、西亚和东南亚得分在0.593~0.608,属于中高水平地区;欧亚、东亚、中非、东非、南亚和中亚得分在0.488~0.819,属于中水平地区;北非得分为0.439,属于中低水平地区;西非得分为0.338,属于低水平地区。根据社会经济发展指数和环境气候可持续指数两个宏观维度的得分将112个国家进行四象限分类,结合各象限国家地区分布、收入结构、产业结构和贸易因素四大特征识别各区域国家可持续发展短板。四个象限国家的特征分别为:基本实现社会经济增长与环境资源损耗脱钩,过度损耗环境资源实现社会经济高增长,低社会经济增长和低环境资源损耗和高环境资源损耗无法推动社会经济增长。最后结合中国对各国对外投资存量数据及各国可持续发展特征,对中国未来在“一带一路”地区进行绿色投资和项目合作以推动“一带一路”国家实现绿色转型提出三点建议。首先,提高对Ⅲ、Ⅳ象限国家绿色基础设施和可再生能源领域的投资比例;其次,根据各国绿色发展需求引导基础设施建设项目投资流向;最后,采用国际标准进行投资项目的环境社会影响评价。
This study adopted the PLS-SEM systematic analysis approach to select 15 indicators of statistical significance from the World Bank public database and recategorize them into 4 dimensions of‘Economic Opportunity,’‘Social Well-being,’‘Environmental Quality,’and‘Climate Action’and established a comprehensive sustainability evaluation model with the Entropy Weight Method and Rank-Sum Ratio Method.With this model,this study evaluated the sustainable development status of 112 Belt and Road countries in Asia,Africa,and Europe.The results showed that the Sustainability Development Integrated Index(SDI)of the EU was 0.819,ranking first among all regions;the SDIs of South Africa,West Asia,and Southeast Asia were 0.593~0.608,belonging to the middle and high level sustainability;the SDIs of Eurasia,East Asia,Central Africa,East Africa,South Asia,and Central Asia were 0.488~0.819,which belonged to the middle-level sustainability;North Africa’s SDI was 0.439,belonging to the middle-low level sustainability;and West Africa’s SDI was 0.338,belonging to the low-level sustainability.To better identify the characteristics of countries at different sustainability levels,this study further classified the 112 countries into a 2-axes 4-quadrants cluster according to their Social&Economic Development Index and Environment&Climate Sustainability Index,combined with quadrant-by-quadrant analysis of geographical and income distribution,industrial structure,and international trade status.The respective characteristics of countries in the four quadrants were:basic realization of the decoupling of social and economic growth from the depletion of environmental resources;excessive depletion of environmental resources to achieve high social and economic growth;low socio-economic growth and low environmental resource depletion;and high environmental resource depletion without promoting social and economic growth.Finally,based on China’s stock of foreign direct investment towards these countries and the results of cluster an
作者
区浩驰
郭凯迪
王灿
OU Haochi;GUO Kaidi;WANG Can(School of Environment,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Our Hong Kong Foundation,Hong Kong,China;National and Global Governance Institute,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第6期175-184,共10页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金碳中和专项项目“面向碳中和的国际合作研究”(批准号:72140002)。
