摘要
可持续发展是“一带一路”建设的重要内容,合理、客观地评价沿线国家可持续发展水平,识别沿线国家可持续发展水平的影响因素对于促进沿线国家可持续发展具有重要意义。采用考虑非期望产出的Super-SBM模型对“一带一路”沿线国家的可持续发展水平进行测度,利用GML指数对“一带一路”沿线国家可持续发展水平的动态变化及其构成进行计算,并进一步采用Tobit模型识别沿线国家整体及各类别国家可持续发展水平的影响因素。实证结果表明:①沿线国家整体的可持续发展水平较低,高收入国家和中高收入国家的可持续发展水平相对较高。②受金融危机的影响,沿线国家整体的可持续发展水平在2008年左右出现了一定程度的下降,但自2011年起,除低收入国家之外,其余类别国家的可持续发展水平均已开始逐渐上升。③自2008年起,技术进步已经取代技术效率,成为沿线国家可持续发展水平提高的主要动力。④经济发展水平与沿线国家可持续发展水平之间呈现出U型关系。⑤科技水平和可再生能源消费占比对沿线国家可持续发展水平具有促进作用。以出口资源型产品、劳动密集型出口产业为主的国家其对外开放水平与可持续发展水平之间呈现出负相关关系。除了低收入国家,从沿线国家整体来看,能源结构对提高可持续发展水平存在积极作用。最后针对我国实施“一带一路”倡议中应当如何面对和应对沿线国家的可持续发展状况提出了政策建议。
Sustainable development is an important part of the Belt and Road Initiative,and it is of great significance to evaluate the sustainable development level of countries along the route and to identify the factors affecting the sustainable development level of these countries reasonably and objectively.This study adopts the Super SBM model considering the unexpected outputs to measure the sustainable development level of the Belt and Road countries.The dynamic change and composition of the sustainable development level of these countries are calculated by using the GML index.The Tobit model is used to identify the factors affecting the sustainable development level of these countries on the whole and of countries in various categories.The empirical results show that:①The overall sustainable development level of the Belt and Road countries is low,while the sustainable development level of the high-income countries and the middle and high-income countries is relatively high.②Affected by the financial crisis,the overall sustainable development level of these countries declined to a certain extent in 2008.However,since 2011,except for the low-income countries,the sustainable development level of other countries has begun to rise gradually.③Since 2008,technological progress has replaced technical efficiency to become the main driving force for the improvement of sustainable development level of these countries.④There is a U-shaped relationship between the economic development level and the sustainable development level of these countries.⑤The level of science and technology and the proportion of renewable energy consumption can promote the sustainable development of these countries.There is a negative correlation between the level of opening to the outside world and the level of sustainable development in countries mainly exporting resource-based products and dominated with labor-intensive export industries.Except for low-income countries,energy structure plays a positive role in improving the level of sustain
作者
黄天航
胡潇月
陈劭锋
王毅
张碧青
HUANG Tianhang;HU Xiaoyue;CHEN Shaofeng;WANG Yi;ZHANG Biqing(School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Sociology and Population Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing 102249,China;Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第12期27-37,共11页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“基于城市管理视角的社会管理(治理)创新研究”(批准号:13CGL103)
国家自然科学基金重点项目“新阶段我国城市化发展道路的选择及管理研究”(批准号:71133003)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“多维创新指数的全过程构建及在创新发展质量测度中的应用研究”(批准号:71874179)
国家社会科学基金重大项目“创新引领发展的机制与对策研究”(批准号:18ZDA101)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助。
