摘要
2020年冬季(2020年12月至2021年2月),赤道中东太平洋海表温度持续下降,形成了一次拉尼娜事件。2021年春季,海表温度回升,转为中性状态。最新观测发现,2021年秋季以来海表温度再次降低,冬季是否会再次形成拉尼娜事件,其对我国冬季的气候有何影响?本文利用自然资源部第一海洋研究所发展的短期气候预测系统FIO-CPS v2.0,以2021年10月1日为起报时间,对冬季气候进行了预测。结果表明,赤道中东太平洋冷异常将在11月达到鼎盛,形成一次弱拉尼娜事件,2022年1月将转为中性状态。在连续2年出现拉尼娜现象的气候背景下,2021年11月,除青藏高原、西南地区、东南沿海及台湾气温偏高外,我国大部分地区气温将偏低。12月之后,我国北方气温偏高而南方气温偏低的概率较大。此外,降水预测结果显示,初冬,南方降水偏多,而华北、东北部分地区降水偏少。2022年1月南方降水将偏少,而华北和东北降水将偏多。不同集合之间降水预测结果存在较大差异,表明降水预测结果仍有较高不确定性。
In the winter of 2020(from December 2020 to February 2021), the observed Sea Surface Temperature(SST) in the equatorial eastern Pacific continues to decrease, and a La Nina event is developed. In the spring of 2021, the SST increases, and the ENSO(El Nino-Southern Oscillation) returns to neutral conditions. The latest observations suggest that SST in the equatorial eastern Pacific has dropped again since autumn 2021. Whether La Nina events will happen again in the coming winter of 2021, and how does this affect the winter climate? In this paper, the winter conditions of ENSO, surface air temperature, and precipitation over China are predicted by the FIO-CPS v2.0, a short-term climate prediction system deve-loped by the First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources of China. Prediction results starting from October 1 of 2021 show that the Nino 3.4 will be below-0.5 ℃ from October to December of 2021, which indicates a weak La Nina event will appear with the lowest value in November. In the spring of 2022, the ENSO will return to neutral state. Under the background of La Nina, the surface air temperature will decrease over most parts of China in November 2021, except for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, southwest region, southeastern coastal areas and Taiwan of China. After that, the surface air temperature will be warm in the north of China from December 2021 to February 2022, and the southern parts of China may experience a cold winter. Moreover, there will be more precipitation in the south and less in the north in the coming early winter, and the pattern will be reversed in the late winter of 2021. Note that there are significant differences in precipitation prediction results among different ensembles, indicating the higher uncertainty for precipitation prediction than that of air temperature.
作者
宋亚娟
宋振亚
魏萌
舒启
鲍颖
乔方利
SONG Ya-juan;SONG Zhen-ya;WEI Meng;SHU Qi;BAO Ying;QIAO Fang-li(First Institute of Oceanography,MNR,Qingdao 266061,China;Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling,MNR,Qingdao 266061,China;Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling,Qingdao 266061,China;Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling,Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao),Qingdao 266071,China)
出处
《海洋科学进展》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第2期165-174,共10页
Advances in Marine Science
基金
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目——ENSO、PDO和AMO的非线性调制机理研究(2019Q08)
国家自然科学面上基金项目——海洋飞沫对亚洲季风区水汽输送的影响(41906186)。
关键词
短期气候预测
拉尼娜
海表温度
气候模式
short-term climate prediction
La Nina
Sea Surface Temperature(SST)
climate model
