摘要
为了深入研究通辽地区气候预测技术方法和提高本地区气候预测准确率,文章对2020年秋季和冬季的气候要素预测效果进行评估。针对评分较差的预测项目,利用历史实况资料、NCEP资料、BCC-CSM(海气耦合模式季节预测)产品、多模式气候预测系统产品等进行深入分析,找出制约气候预测准确率的影响因素以及预测失误的主要原因,希望这些失误原因能够为今后的气候预测提供经验教训,对气候预测准确率的提高发挥重要的作用。结果表明:气候预测模式的解释应用和强的气候异常信号因子的响应尤为重要,此外,对气候要素年代际变化背景的考虑、气候要素正距平频次合成的结果分析以及对可能发生的极端气候事件的预判等都是做好短期气候预测的至关重要的因素。
In order to in-depth study of climate prediction technology and methods in Tongliao region and improve the accuracy of climate prediction in this region,the prediction effect of climate elements in the autumn and winter of 2020 is evaluated.For the poorly scored prediction items,use historical fact data,Ncep data,BCC-CSM(Sea-Atmosphere Coupled Model Seasonal Prediction)products,multi-model climate prediction system products,etc.to conduct in-depth analysis to find out the influencing factors that restrict the accuracy of climate prediction As well as the main reasons for the prediction errors,it is hoped that these reasons can provide lessons for future climate predictions and play an important role in improving the accuracy of climate predictions.The conclusion shows that the interpretation and application of climate prediction models and the application of response to strong climate anomaly signal factors are particularly important.In addition,consideration of the background of interdecadal changes in climate elements,analysis of the results of the synthesis of positive anomalies frequency of climate elements,and possible Pre-judgments of extreme climate events that occur are all crucial factors for making short-term climate predictions.
作者
祁雁文
赵梅兰
马蔷
QiYanwen;Zhao Meilan;Ma Qiang(Tongliao City Meteorological Bureau,Inner Mongolia TongLiao 028000)
出处
《内蒙古气象》
2021年第5期23-26,共4页
Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia
关键词
拉尼娜
年代际变化
正距平频次合成
极端气候事件
厄尔尼诺
La Nina
Interdecadal variability
Positive anomaly frequency synthesis
Extreme weather events
El Nino
