摘要
“双碳”目标下节能降碳问题成为学术界和政策制定者关注的重点课题。文章运用中国46个部门的碳排放数据,构建TVP-SV-FAVAR模型从结构性视角实证分析了产业结构升级对分部门碳排放影响的时变特征。研究结果显示,产业结构升级可以通过产业相对比重的变化和产业技术水平提升两个渠道降低碳排放总强度以及高碳排放部门、中等碳排放部门、低碳排放部门的碳排放强度。在新发展阶段产业结构升级对碳排放总量以及三大部门碳排放的影响强度明显高于粗放发展阶段。产业结构升级对中等碳排放部门的影响强度最大,对低碳排放部门的影响强度次之,对高碳排放部门的影响强度最低。文章研究得出,应贯彻新发展理念,持续推进产业结构优化升级,加快重点部门的生产技术进步和能源替代,助力“双碳”目标实现。
Energy saving and carbon reduction under the"dual carbon"target has become the focus of academic and policy makers.Based on the carbon emission data of 46 sectors in China,this paper builds a TVP-SV-FAVAR model to empirically analyze the time-varying characteristics of the impact of industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions by sector from a structural perspective.The results show that the upgrading of industrial structure can reduce the total carbon emission intensity and the carbon emission intensity of high carbon emission sector,medium carbon emission sector and low carbon emission sector through two channels:the change of the relative proportion of industry and the improvement of industrial technology level.In the new development stage,the impact intensity of industrial structure upgrading on total carbon emissions and carbon emissions of the three sectors is obviously higher than that in the extensive development stage.The industrial structure upgrading has the highest impact intensity on the medium carbon emission sector,followed by the low carbon emission sector,and the lowest impact intensity on the high carbon emission sector.This paper argues that we should implement the new development concept,continuously promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,accelerate the progress of production technology and energy substitution in key sectors,and help achieve the goal of"dual carbon".
作者
陈雪梅
周斌
CHEN Xue-mei;ZHOU Bin(School of Marxism,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an Shaanxi 710054,China;Gaoxin University,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an Shaanxi 710109,China)
出处
《技术经济与管理研究》
北大核心
2022年第6期123-128,共6页
Journal of Technical Economics & Management
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(18XKS014)。
关键词
产业结构
结构升级
碳排放
“双碳”目标
Industrial structure
Structural upgrading
Carbon emissions
Double carbon targets
