摘要
研究目标:探究历史法、基准线法、历史基准线混合法三种碳配额分配方式下引起中国经济波动的主要外生冲击及其影响中国经济波动的机制。研究方法:基于中国碳排放权交易市场特征,构建一个包含碳排放权交易的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型。研究发现:(1)历史法下,中国经济波动更容易受到政策冲击的影响。基准线法与历史基准线混合法下,中国经济波动更容易受到碳排放企业技术冲击与生态企业技术冲击的影响;(2)历史法、基准线法、历史基准线混合法不改变碳排放企业技术冲击与生态企业技术冲击对中国经济波动的影响;(3)基准线法下的社会福利损失小于历史法和历史基准线混合法两种情形,随着企业的初始碳配额增加,通胀率波动与总产出波动持续增加,社会福利损失扩大,且这种情况在历史法下更明显。研究创新:将历史法、基准线法、历史基准线混合法三种碳配额分配方式植入DSGE模型,比较三种碳配额分配方式对中国经济波动的影响。研究价值:本文的分析对于中国宏观经济与碳排放权交易市场的平稳运行提供理论参考。
Research Objectives:Find the main exogenous shocks that cause fluctuations on China’s economy and its influence mechanism under three kinds of carbon quota allocation methods such as historical method,baseline method,and mixed method.Research Methods:Constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model(DSGE)which includes a carbon emissions trading system based on the characteristics of China’s carbon emissions trading market.Research Findings:(1)Under historical method and the other two quota carbon allocation methods,fluctuation of China’s economy is vulnerable to policy shocks and technological shocks respectively.(2)Fluctuation of China’s economy caused by technological shocks remains unchanged under the three carbon quota allocation methods.(3)Social welfare loss under baseline method is less than that under the other two carbon quota allocation methods.Social welfare loss,inflation rate and total output increases with the increase of initial carbon quota of enterprise,especially under historical method.Research Innovations:Comparing fluctuation effect on China’s economy under historical method,baseline method and mixed method by a DSGE model.Research Value:Provides a theoretical reference for the smooth operation of China’s macro-economy and carbon emission trading market.
作者
杨翱
Yang Ao(College of Economics,Shenzhen University)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第6期81-99,共19页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
