摘要
对中国气象局公共气象服务中心提供的2017年12月1日至2018年1月31日河南主要高速公路沿线逐3 h最大风速精细化指导预报检验结果显示,预报产品表现出较好的预报能力,但仍存在较为明显的系统性偏差。采用滑动平均、类卡尔曼滤波递减平均偏差订正法,对该产品进行误差订正研究,结果表明,两种订正方法均表现为正的订正效果,较好地降低了模式预报结果的系统性偏差。在原始预报误差较大的站点和误差较大的预报时效,两种方法的订正效果更为明显。滑动平均法订正后24 h平均均方根误差由原来的1.54 m/s减小到1.29~1.42 m/s,递减平均法订正后平均均方根误差进一步降低到1.26 m/s,误差缩小百分比为8.03%~17.23%。
The refined guidance forecasts of the 3 h maximum wind speed along the main expressways in Henan Province during the period from 1 December 2017 to 31 January 2018,provided by the CMA Public Meteorological Service Center,are analyzed.It is found that the forecast products show good forecasting capabilities,but there are still obvious systematic deviations relatively.The moving average method and Kalman Filter-typed decaying average bias correction method are applied to correct the errors.The results show that the two correction methods both have positive correction effects and can reduce the systematic deviations of model prediction.The correction effect of the two methods is more obvious at the stations with large forecast errors and lead time errors originally.The 24 h average RMSE(root mean square error)is reduced from the original 1.54 m/s to the range of 1.29 m/s and 1.42 m/s by the moving average method,and it is further reduced to 1.26 m/s after being corrected by the decaying average bias correction method.The IPE(improvement percentage of error)reaches 8.03%—17.23%.
作者
肖瑶
席世平
王丽
Xiao Yao;Xi Shiping;Wang Li(CMA·Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Henan Meteorological Service Center,Zhengzhou 450003,China)
出处
《气象与环境科学》
2022年第3期29-35,共7页
Meteorological and Environmental Sciences
基金
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z034)
河南省气象局软科学项目(202102),中国气象局·(河南)农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室科技计划项目(KQ201837、KM202011、KM201920)。
关键词
风速精细化预报
系统性偏差
偏差订正
refined wind speed forecast
systematic error
bias correction
