摘要
绵刺(Potaninia mongolica Maxim.)为我国西北干旱、半干旱地区孑遗濒危荒漠植物,具有重要的生态作用。预测过去、当代及未来气候变化情景下绵刺植物在中国的潜在地理分布区和迁移路线,将为绵刺的保护利用及种群合理建立提供一定的科学依据。基于绵刺在中国的73个有效分布点和8个环境因子变量,利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件预测末次间冰期、末次盛冰期、当代及未来绵刺在中国的潜在地理分布变化,综合分析影响绵刺分布的主要环境因子及其适宜范围,并用检验受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)评估模型的精确度。结果表明:(1)MaxEnt模型预测精确度极高,受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)值为0.988,预测显示当代绵刺主要分布在内蒙古中西部地区(阿拉善地区)、宁夏东北部和西北部、甘肃中东部、新疆中部和西部少量狭长分布区,潜在地理分布的总适生区面积约是51.94×10^(4) km^(2);(2)影响绵刺潜在地理分布的重要环境因子变量是降雨(最干月降雨量、年均降雨量、最湿月降雨量、最冷季度平均降雨量)和温度(最热月的最高温);(3)从末次间冰期到末次盛冰期,绵刺不同等级潜在适生区面积大幅度缩小;末次盛冰期到当代,绵刺不同等级潜在适生区面积有所增加,但未恢复到末次间冰期面积;未来四种气候情景下,绵刺潜在适生区面积除未来2070年典型浓度路径(RCP8.5)情景下少量减少外,其他三个气候情景(2050年RCP4.5、2050年RCP8.5和2070年RCP4.5)均增加,但高适生区和中适生区面积均减少,低适生区面积大幅增加,且绵刺分布中心有向西南迁移的趋势。
Potaninia mongolica Maxim.is a relict and endangered desert plant in arid and semi⁃arid areas of Northwest China,which plays an important ecological role.Predicting the potential geographical distribution areas and migration routes of Potaninia in China under climate change scenarios in the past,contemporary and future will provide a certain scientific basis for the protection and utilization of Potaninia and the reasonable establishment of populations.This study was based on 73 effective distribution sites and 8 environmental factor variables of P.mongolica in China,The MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to simulate the potential distribution of P.mongolica in the Last Interglacial,the Last Glacial Maximum,the current and the future.Comprehensive analysis of the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of P.mongolica and its suitablerange,and the response curve was used to determine the suitable range of environmental factor variables.The accuracy of model was tested and evaluated by area under the curve(AUC)of the test subject working characteristic(ROC).The results showed that(1)the prediction accuracy of the Maxent model is extremely high,area under the curve(AUC)of the test subject working characteristic(ROC)is 0.988.The prediction shows that current P.mongolica is mainly located in the central and western regions of Inner Mongolia(Alashan Region),northeastern and northwestern Ningxia,Central and eastern Gansu,a small number of narrow and long distributions in Central and western Xinjiang.The total suitable area of the potentially geographical distribution of P.mongolica is about 51.94×10^(4) km^(2).(2)The main environmental factor variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of P.mongolica are precipitation(the driest monthly precipitation、annual average precipitation、the wettest monthly precipitation and coldest quarter average precipitation)and temperature(hottest monthly highest temperature).(3)From the Last Interglacial to the Last Glacial Maximum,the suitable
作者
秦媛媛
鲁客
杜忠毓
史建国
柴乖强
张宇
雷凯宇
段义忠
QIN Yuanyuan;LU Ke;DU Zhongyu;SHI Jianguo;CHAI Guaiqiang;ZHANG Yu;LEI Kaiyu;DUAN Yizhong(Shaanxi Key Laboratory Ecological Restoration in Northern Shaanxi Mining Area,Yulin University,Yulin 719000,China;Yulin Forestry and Grassland Bureau,Yulin Forestry Industry Development Center,Yulin 719000,China;Research Institute of Subtropical Forestry,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Hangzhou 311400,China;Yulin Forestry and Grassland Bureau,Yulin Afforestation Service Center,Yulin 719000,China)
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第11期4473-4484,共12页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(32060095)。
关键词
绵刺
气候变化
MaxEnt模型
地理分布
Potaninia mongolica
climate change
MaxEnt model
geographical distribution
