摘要
气候是影响植物栖息地的重要因素之一,预测气候变化对植物潜在分布范围变动的影响,对促进植物资源的可持续利用具有重要意义。基于最大熵Maxent模型结合11个环境变量,预测2050s三种气候情景下(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5)南方红豆杉(Taxus chinensis var.mairei)在中国的潜在地理分布状况,分析影响其分布的主要因素,探讨其分布格局的改变对我国亚热带北界的指示意义。结果表明:(1)南方红豆杉的适宜栖息地(生境指数P>0.2)主要分布在我国亚热带暖温带季风区,绝大部分核心栖息地(生境指数P>0.6)分布在秦岭大巴山以南地区;(2)Jackknife测试结果显示,最冷季降水量(bio19)、气温平均日较差(bio2)、气温年变化范围(bio7)、最暖季平均温度(bio10)和海拔(Elev)对南方红豆杉空间分布适宜性影响最大;(3)随气候变化,2050s南方红豆杉有沿纬度向北和海拔向上迁移的趋势,并且我国亚热带北界受气候变化的影响将逐渐向北移动。
Climate is an important factor affecting plant habitat.It is of great significance to promote the sustainable use of natural resources and predict the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of plants.The potential geographical distribution of Taxus chinensis var.mairei in China was simulated by the maximum entropy model(Maxent),based on 11 environmental variables under three climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)in the 2050s.And we discussed the significance of its distribution patterns to the northern boundary of subtropical China.The results showed that AUC=0.950,indicating that Maxent had high accuracy and reliability in prediction of the potential distribution for Taxus chinensis var.mairei.Jackknife test results showed that the main environmental variables affecting the distribution suitability of Taxus chinensis var.mairei.were the precipitation of coldest quarter(bio19),mean diurnal range(bio2),temperature annual range(bio7),mean temperature of warmest quarter(bio10)and altitude(Elev),and the cumulative contribution of>90%.The suitable habitats(P>0.2)of Taxus chinensis var.mairei are mainly distributed in the subtropical and warm temperate monsoon areas of 18°-36°N and 104°-124°E in China,and most of the core habitats(P>0.6)were distributed to the south of Qinling-Daba Mountains.With the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations in the 2050s,the suitable habitats of Taxus chinensis var.mairei increased in RCP2.6 scenario,and decreased in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.With the climate warming in the future,the suitable habitats range of Taxus chinensis var.mairei in RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios are expanding north-and westward,while shrinking south-and eastward.In the RCP8.5 scenario,the suitable habitats distribution of Taxus chinensis var.mairei are"expanding westward",and"shrinking eastward".With climate change,the centroid of Taxus chinensis var.mairei distribution moved to the northwest under the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5,and moved to the southwest in the RCP 8.5 scenario.The
作者
李艳红
张立娟
朱文博
张静静
徐帅博
朱连奇
LI Yan-hong;ZHANG Li-juan;ZHU Wen-bo;ZHANG Jing-jing;XU Shuai-bo;ZHU Lian-qi(College of Environment and Planning,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,Henan,China)
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第3期783-792,共10页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41671090)
科技基础资源调查专项(2017FY100902)。
