摘要
第七次全国人口普查公报显示,全国人口年龄构成中65岁及以上人口占比达13.50%,农村人口老龄化趋势更为明显,厘清农村人口老龄化与技术效率的关系,对保障粮食生产具有重要意义。由于老龄农户对生产方便的需求更加强烈,因此选择农业生产性服务作为中介变量,基于2010—2019年省级面板数据,采用随机前沿分析和中介效应模型,对农村人口老龄化与技术效率之间的作用逻辑进行研究。研究结果表明:中国农业技术效率大致呈现出“东高西低”分布结构,2019年各省份农业技术效率均值较2010年增长15.5%,但仍有较大发展潜力;农村人口老龄化刺激了农业生产性服务的发展,农业生产性服务弥补了老龄农户在技术效率上的直接损失,间接促进了技术效率的提升;农业生产性服务发挥了部分中介效应,其占总效应的比例为0.35。因此,应高度重视农业生产性服务业的发展,探索因地制宜的农业生产性服务业发展路径,以促进农村人口老龄化背景下农业技术效率的提升。
According to China’s 7th national population census,the proportion of the population aged 65 and over in the national population is 13.50%,and the trend of aging of the rural population is even more pronounced.It is important to clarify the relationship between the aging of rural population and the technical efficiency to ensure food production.Agricultural producer services were chosen as intermediary variables because the aging agricultural labor force had a stronger demand for production convenience.Based on the provincial panel data for 2010 to 2019,the logic of the role between the aging of the rural population and the technical efficiency was studied by using stochastic frontier analysis and mediation effect model.The results show that:China’s agricultural technology efficiency roughly shows the distribution structure of“high in the east and low in the west”,and the average agricultural technology efficiency of various provinces in 2019 increased by 15.5%compared with 2010,but there is still great potential for development;the aging of rural population stimulates the development of agricultural producer services;agricultural producer services played a part of the mediating effect,accounting for 0.35 of the total effect.Agricultural producer services make up for the direct loss of technical efficiency of elderly farmers,indirectly promoting the improvement of technical efficiency.Therefore,the development of agricultural productive service industry should be paid attention to,and all regions should explore the development path of agricultural productive service industry according to local conditions,and promote the improvement of agricultural technical efficiency under the background of the aging of rural population.
作者
姜常宜
张怡
JIANG Changyi;ZHANG Yi
出处
《世界农业》
CSSCI
2022年第6期90-100,共11页
World Agriculture
基金
农业农村部软科学“农业产业发展新旧动能转换问题研究”(2018019)。
关键词
农村人口老龄化
农业生产性服务
农业技术效率
随机前沿分析
中介效应模型
Rural Population Aging
Agricultural Producer Services
Agricultural Technical Efficiency
Stochastic Frontier Analysis
Mediation Effect Model
