摘要
风灾对新疆农牧业生产造成极大危害。本研究以风灾造成的倒塌房屋数、倒塌棚圈数、死亡人数、农作物受灾面积、损坏大棚数、牲畜死亡数作为6大灾情要素,运用比值权重和无量纲化线性求和方法构建表达风灾事件强弱的灾损指数,并采用百分位数法将风灾事件的强度划分为一般(1级)、较重(2级)、严重(3级)、特重(4级)4个等级。根据灾损指数和灾害等级,研究新疆风灾的时空变化特征。结果表明:新疆风灾集中于4—5月,南疆多于北疆,吐鲁番盆地和塔里木盆地北部是风灾的多发区和重发区;近30年风灾年出现次数呈显著的线性增加趋势,年灾损指数没有表现出线性增加或减少的变化趋势,其中1~4级风灾的年际变化具有明显的差异性;引发1~4级风灾的极大风速阈值分别为12.9、13.7、14.1、15.0 m·s^(-1);超过12.9 m·s^(-1)极大风速出现日数逐年增多,加之农牧业生产快速发展,导致风灾年出现次数不断增加。
The wind disaster has caused great harm to agricultural and animal husbandry production in Xinjiang. In this study, the number of collapsed houses, collapsed sheds, death toll, damaged sheds, livestock deaths, and the affected areas of crops are taken as the six major disaster factors to construct a disaster index that can comprehensively express the wind disaster intensity using the ratio weight and dimensionless linear summation method. Based on the percentile method, the intensity of the wind disaster events is divided into four levels: general(level 1), heavy(level 2), severe(level 3), and extra heavy(level 4). The disaster damage index and disaster level are used to study the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of wind disasters in Xinjiang. The results show that the wind disasters in Xinjiang are concentrated from April to May, more in the southern Xinjiang than in the northern Xinjiang, and the Turpan Basin and the northern Tarim Basin are the frequent and serious wind disaster areas in Xinjiang. The annual occurrence times of wind disasters in the recent 30 years show a significant linear increasing trend. The annual disaster loss index does not show a linear increasing or decreasing trend, among which the interannual variation of level 1 to 4 wind disasters has apparent differences. The maximum wind speed thresholds causing level 1 to 4 wind disasters are 12.9, 13.7, 14.1 and 15.0 m·s^(-1), respectively. The number of days when the maximum wind speed exceeds 12.9 m·s^(-1) increases year by year, coupled with the rapid development of agriculture and animal husbandry production, resulting in the continuous increase of the number of wind disasters in the year.
作者
王秀琴
王昀
王旭
WANG Xiuqin;WANG Yun;WANG Xu(Xinjiang Meteorological Information Center,Urumqi 830002;College of Atmospheric Science of Lanzhou University,Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730000;Weather Modification Office of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830002)
出处
《气象科技》
2022年第2期273-281,共9页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
“第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究”项目子专题(2019QZKK010206)资助。
关键词
风灾
灾损指数
等级
时空分布
新疆
wind disaster
damage index
level
temporal and spatial distribution
Xinjiang
