摘要
在低生育率背景下,育儿成本过高已经成为阻碍生育意愿转化为实际生育行为最主要的现实约束。基于2019年西安市“养育成本及生育意愿状况专项调查”数据,采用方差分析和泊松回归方法,从新家庭经济学和家庭生命周期理论的视角探讨了养育成本对已育一孩夫妇生育意愿的影响。研究发现:已育一孩夫妇的平均打算生育子女数为1.35,0—3岁、4—6岁和7—12岁家庭的平均打算生育子女数分别为1.43、1.32和1.29;已育一孩夫妇的直接经济成本以教育成本和饮食成本为主,其中0—3岁家庭多为饮食成本,4—6岁和7—12岁家庭则多为教育成本;间接成本主要是机会成本、时间成本和人力成本,其中0—3岁家庭更多付出的是时间成本,4—6岁和7—12岁家庭则集中在机会成本和人力成本。养育成本对已育一孩夫妇打算生育子女数的影响具有明显的异质性,直接的教育成本、娱乐成本以及间接的机会成本、人力成本对打算生育子女数具有降低效应,机会成本、人力成本会降低0—3岁家庭的打算生育子女数,教育成本、机会成本会减少4—6岁家庭的打算生育子女数,7—12岁家庭的打算生育子女数更多受娱乐成本和人力成本的制约。研究发现有助于深化养育成本与生育意愿关系的认识与理解,也为分类降低各项养育成本、精准提升不同生命周期家庭的生育意愿提供了新的思路。
Given the low fertility rate,the high cost of child-rearing have already emerged as the dominant constraint that hinders the conversion of fertility intention into actual fertility behavior.Based on the data of“the Survey of Child-rearing Costs and Fertility Intentions”in Xi’an in 2019,employing the method of variance analysis and Poisson Regression,this research discusses the impact of child-rearing cost on the child-bearing intention of couples with one child,which is mainly derived from theoretical perspective of the new family economics and family life cycle theory.The findings are as followed:the average number of intended children of couples with one child is 1.35.Meanwhile,the average numbers of children planned by families with children aged 0-3,4-6 and 7-12 years old are 1.43,1.32 and 1.29 respectively.The direct economic cost of a couple with child is mainly related to education and food costs,among which food costs are mostly for families with child aged 0-3,while education costs account for majority as child aged 4-6 and 7-12 years.Indirect costs are mainly related to opportunity cost,time cost and the labor cost,among which the families with child aged 0-3 years old pay more time costs,while families with children aged 4-6 and 7-12 years old pay more in opportunity and labor costs.There is significant heterogeneity in the effect of rearing costs on the number of children that the couples with one child intend to have.Direct education costs,recreation costs and indirect opportunity costs and labor costs will reduce the number of children that the couple with one child plan to.The planed numbers of families with child aged 0-3 years old are mainly influenced by opportunity costs and manpower costs,meanwhile,planed numbers of families with child aged 4-6 years are mainly influenced by education costs and opportunity costs,moreover,planed numbers of families with child aged 7-12 are mainly constrained by recreation costs and manpower costs.These findings will help improve us to deepen the understan
作者
罗志华
吴瑞君
贾志科
LUO Zhihua;WU Ruijun;JIA Zhike(The Center for Modern Chinese City Studies,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China;School of Social Development,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;3.College of Philosophy and Sociology,Hebei University,Baoding 071002,China)
出处
《人口与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第3期97-112,共16页
Population & Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“家庭养育成本及其对生育决策的影响研究”(21ARK006)。
关键词
已育一孩夫妇
养育成本
生育意愿
新家庭经济学
家庭生命周期
one-child couples
family costs of child-rearing
fertility intention
new family economics
family life cycle
